— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
aifs
50¢
wn2
37¢
nbm
28¢
hres
24¢
icon
5¢
eps
4¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
64–65°F1¢
66–67°F3¢
68–69°F7¢
70–71°F12¢
72–73°F17¢
74–75°F19¢
76–77°F17¢
78–79°F12¢
80–81°F6¢
82–83°F3¢
84–85°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 7, scored on 8,387 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.601 vs climatology 8.75.
Receipts
prop id WP-KRDU-20261027-TMAX-GE79 · opened 2026-10-20T10:53:13+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape