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KRDU / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST16%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
50%
WN2
37%
HRES
24%
ICON
5%
EPS
4%
Consensus
16%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 26.8¢Risks 26.80u
VS
EPSNO 73.2¢Risks 73.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +73.20u · EPS −73.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 50.0% · 2026-10-20T10:53:13+00:00AIFS Single: 50.0% · 2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00AIFS Single: 50.0% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00AIFS Single: 50.0% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.6% · 2026-10-20T10:53:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.6% · 2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.6% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.6% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 36.9% · 2026-10-20T10:53:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 36.9% · 2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 36.9% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 36.9% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00IFS HRES: 24.2% · 2026-10-20T10:53:13+00:00IFS HRES: 24.2% · 2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00IFS HRES: 24.2% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00IFS HRES: 24.2% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00ICON: 4.6% · 2026-10-20T10:53:13+00:00ICON: 4.6% · 2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00ICON: 4.6% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00ICON: 4.6% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:0010-20 10:5310-20 12:2410-20 13:10
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T10:53:13+00:0050.0%3.6%36.9%24.2%4.6%
2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:0050.0%3.6%36.9%24.2%4.6%
2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:0050.0%3.6%36.9%24.2%4.6%
2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:0050.0%3.6%36.9%24.2%4.6%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single50%78.5°F5.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 237%76.8°F5.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend28%76.0°F4.4°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
IFS HRES24%74.0°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON5%61.6°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble4%72.4°F3.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261027-TMAX-GE79
Opened Oct 20 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh runs hot-for-here: 79°F+ · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗