daily prop · Richmond, VA · Northeast & Mid-Atlantic · settles Mon Oct 19

Richmond runs hot-for-here: 80°F+ · Mon Oct 19

3¢

american +3015 · decimal 31.15

on the tape

80°F is the top-decile high for this date at this station (1940–present). Hot means hot *for here*.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 80°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

icon		20¢
aifs		9¢
wn2		9¢
hres		8¢
ndfd		4¢
nbm		2¢
eps		2¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

54–55°F1¢

56–57°F3¢

58–59°F8¢

60–61°F16¢

62–63°F22¢

64–65°F22¢

66–67°F16¢

68–69°F8¢

70–71°F3¢

72–73°F1¢

calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,255 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.905 vs climatology 8.863.

Receipts

prop id WP-KRIC-20261019-TMAX-GE80 · opened 2026-10-12T13:51:02+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape