KRIC / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Oct 13 · 10:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

20%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 10.8¢Risks 5.40u

EPSNO 89.2¢Risks 44.60u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +44.60u · EPS −44.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-13T10:19:51+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T13:51:02+00:00	5.8%	1.4%	3.2%	12.5%	2.3%
2026-10-12T14:41:15+00:00	5.9%	1.4%	3.2%	12.5%	2.3%
2026-10-12T15:26:44+00:00	5.9%	1.4%	3.2%	12.5%	2.3%
2026-10-12T16:12:54+00:00	5.9%	1.5%	3.2%	12.5%	2.3%
2026-10-12T16:58:02+00:00	5.9%	1.5%	5.8%	12.5%	2.3%
2026-10-12T17:43:11+00:00	5.9%	1.5%	5.8%	12.5%	2.3%
2026-10-12T18:28:18+00:00	5.9%	1.5%	5.8%	12.5%	2.3%
2026-10-12T19:13:24+00:00	5.9%	1.5%	5.8%	12.5%	2.3%
2026-10-12T19:58:31+00:00	5.7%	1.5%	5.8%	10.1%	12.9%
2026-10-12T20:43:41+00:00	5.7%	1.5%	5.8%	10.1%	12.9%
2026-10-12T21:28:48+00:00	5.7%	1.5%	5.8%	10.1%	12.9%
2026-10-12T22:13:55+00:00	5.7%	1.5%	5.8%	10.1%	12.9%
2026-10-12T22:59:07+00:00	5.7%	1.5%	9.5%	10.1%	12.9%
2026-10-12T23:44:16+00:00	5.7%	1.5%	9.5%	10.1%	12.9%
2026-10-13T00:29:23+00:00	5.7%	1.5%	9.5%	10.1%	12.9%
2026-10-13T01:14:38+00:00	5.7%	1.5%	9.5%	10.1%	12.9%
2026-10-13T01:59:45+00:00	11.3%	1.5%	9.5%	10.1%	12.9%
2026-10-13T02:44:54+00:00	11.3%	1.5%	9.5%	10.1%	12.9%
2026-10-13T03:30:00+00:00	11.3%	1.5%	9.5%	10.1%	12.9%
2026-10-13T04:15:20+00:00	11.3%	1.5%	9.5%	10.1%	12.9%
2026-10-13T05:01:43+00:00	11.3%	1.5%	8.6%	10.1%	12.9%
2026-10-13T05:46:50+00:00	11.3%	1.5%	8.6%	10.1%	12.9%
2026-10-13T06:32:04+00:00	11.3%	1.5%	8.6%	10.1%	12.9%
2026-10-13T07:17:16+00:00	11.3%	1.5%	8.6%	10.1%	12.9%
2026-10-13T08:02:45+00:00	9.1%	1.5%	8.6%	7.8%	20.1%
2026-10-13T08:49:38+00:00	9.1%	1.5%	8.6%	7.8%	20.1%
2026-10-13T09:34:44+00:00	9.1%	1.5%	8.6%	7.8%	20.1%
2026-10-13T10:19:51+00:00	9.1%	1.5%	8.6%	7.8%	20.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	20%	73.6°F	7.0°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	9%	72.4°F	5.3°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	9%	72.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-12 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	8%	70.2°F	6.6°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	4%	69.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 03:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	70.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	2%	69.1°F	4.8°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261019-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 12 · 13:51 UTC

Original listing: Richmond runs hot-for-here: 80°F+ · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗