— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
95¢
aifs
88¢
eps
76¢
ndfd
55¢
nbm
55¢
icon
38¢
hres
22¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
56–57°F1¢
58–59°F3¢
60–61°F9¢
62–63°F17¢
64–65°F24¢
66–67°F23¢
68–69°F15¢
70–71°F6¢
72–73°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,413 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.902 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KRIC-20261023-TMAX-GE64 · opened 2026-10-20T04:04:00+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape