WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KRIC / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST70%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
95%
AIFS
88%
EPS
76%
ICON
38%
HRES
22%
Consensus
70%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 58.5¢Risks 58.45u
VS
HRESNO 41.5¢Risks 41.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +41.55u · HRES −41.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 82.0% · 2026-10-20T04:04:00+00:00AIFS Single: 82.0% · 2026-10-20T04:51:19+00:00AIFS Single: 82.0% · 2026-10-20T05:36:26+00:00AIFS Single: 82.0% · 2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00AIFS Single: 82.0% · 2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00AIFS Single: 87.5% · 2026-10-20T07:51:52+00:00AIFS Single: 87.5% · 2026-10-20T08:37:06+00:00AIFS Single: 87.5% · 2026-10-20T09:22:20+00:00AIFS Single: 87.5% · 2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00AIFS Single: 87.5% · 2026-10-20T10:53:05+00:00AIFS Single: 87.5% · 2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00AIFS Single: 87.5% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00AIFS Single: 87.5% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00AIFS Single: 87.6% · 2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.4% · 2026-10-20T04:04:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.4% · 2026-10-20T04:51:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.4% · 2026-10-20T05:36:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.4% · 2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.4% · 2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.4% · 2026-10-20T07:51:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.4% · 2026-10-20T08:37:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.4% · 2026-10-20T09:22:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.4% · 2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.0% · 2026-10-20T10:53:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.0% · 2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.0% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.0% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.0% · 2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.4% · 2026-10-20T04:04:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.4% · 2026-10-20T04:51:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.1% · 2026-10-20T05:36:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.1% · 2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.1% · 2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.1% · 2026-10-20T07:51:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.1% · 2026-10-20T08:37:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.1% · 2026-10-20T09:22:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.1% · 2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.6% · 2026-10-20T10:53:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.6% · 2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.6% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.6% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.6% · 2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:00IFS HRES: 15.9% · 2026-10-20T04:04:00+00:00IFS HRES: 15.9% · 2026-10-20T04:51:19+00:00IFS HRES: 15.9% · 2026-10-20T05:36:26+00:00IFS HRES: 15.9% · 2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00IFS HRES: 15.9% · 2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00IFS HRES: 15.9% · 2026-10-20T07:51:52+00:00IFS HRES: 15.9% · 2026-10-20T08:37:06+00:00IFS HRES: 15.9% · 2026-10-20T09:22:20+00:00IFS HRES: 15.9% · 2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00IFS HRES: 22.3% · 2026-10-20T10:53:05+00:00IFS HRES: 22.3% · 2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00IFS HRES: 22.3% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00IFS HRES: 22.3% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00IFS HRES: 22.3% · 2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:00ICON: 28.3% · 2026-10-20T04:04:00+00:00ICON: 28.3% · 2026-10-20T04:51:19+00:00ICON: 28.3% · 2026-10-20T05:36:26+00:00ICON: 28.3% · 2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00ICON: 28.3% · 2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00ICON: 38.2% · 2026-10-20T07:51:52+00:00ICON: 38.2% · 2026-10-20T08:37:06+00:00ICON: 38.2% · 2026-10-20T09:22:20+00:00ICON: 38.2% · 2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00ICON: 38.2% · 2026-10-20T10:53:05+00:00ICON: 38.2% · 2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00ICON: 38.2% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00ICON: 38.2% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00ICON: 38.2% · 2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:0010-20 04:0410-20 09:2210-20 13:55
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T04:04:00+00:0082.0%79.4%93.4%15.9%28.3%
2026-10-20T04:51:19+00:0082.0%79.4%93.4%15.9%28.3%
2026-10-20T05:36:26+00:0082.0%79.4%94.1%15.9%28.3%
2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:0082.0%79.4%94.1%15.9%28.3%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:0082.0%79.4%94.1%15.9%28.3%
2026-10-20T07:51:52+00:0087.5%79.4%94.1%15.9%38.2%
2026-10-20T08:37:06+00:0087.5%79.4%94.1%15.9%38.2%
2026-10-20T09:22:20+00:0087.5%79.4%94.1%15.9%38.2%
2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:0087.5%79.4%94.1%15.9%38.2%
2026-10-20T10:53:05+00:0087.5%76.0%94.6%22.3%38.2%
2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:0087.5%76.0%94.6%22.3%38.2%
2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:0087.5%76.0%94.6%22.3%38.2%
2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:0087.5%76.0%94.6%22.3%38.2%
2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:0087.6%76.0%94.6%22.3%38.2%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 295%68.9°F3.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single88%68.4°F4.2°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble76%65.7°F3.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
NWS forecast55%64.0°F3.9°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
National Blend55%64.0°F4.4°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
ICON38%62.3°F4.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES22%60.1°F4.5°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261023-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 20 · 04:04 UTC

Original listing: Richmond high ≥ 64°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗