— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
91¢
aifs
82¢
icon
74¢
nbm
63¢
ndfd
54¢
hres
46¢
eps
45¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
56–57°F1¢
58–59°F4¢
60–61°F9¢
62–63°F16¢
64–65°F21¢
66–67°F21¢
68–69°F16¢
70–71°F9¢
72–73°F4¢
74–75°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,364 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.162 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KRIC-20261024-TMAX-GE64 · opened 2026-10-19T04:30:27+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape