KRIC / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST71%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

82%

74%

46%

45%

Consensus

71%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 67.8¢Risks 67.85u

EPSNO 32.1¢Risks 32.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +32.15u · EPS −32.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T04:30:27+00:00	63.7%	48.1%	74.7%	45.8%	63.1%
2026-10-19T05:16:56+00:00	63.7%	48.1%	71.1%	45.8%	63.1%
2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00	63.7%	48.1%	71.1%	45.8%	63.1%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	63.7%	48.1%	71.1%	45.8%	63.1%
2026-10-19T07:32:41+00:00	75.4%	48.1%	71.1%	27.9%	57.8%
2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00	75.4%	48.1%	71.1%	27.9%	57.8%
2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00	75.4%	48.1%	71.1%	27.9%	57.8%
2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00	75.4%	48.1%	71.1%	27.9%	57.8%
2026-10-19T10:34:59+00:00	75.4%	48.1%	71.1%	27.9%	57.8%
2026-10-19T11:20:40+00:00	75.4%	43.8%	89.3%	27.9%	57.8%
2026-10-19T12:06:28+00:00	75.4%	43.8%	89.3%	27.9%	57.8%
2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:00	75.4%	43.8%	89.3%	27.9%	57.8%
2026-10-19T13:36:55+00:00	76.6%	43.8%	89.3%	27.9%	57.8%
2026-10-19T14:27:57+00:00	76.7%	43.8%	89.3%	27.8%	57.8%
2026-10-19T15:13:18+00:00	76.7%	42.9%	89.3%	27.8%	57.8%
2026-10-19T15:59:06+00:00	76.7%	42.9%	89.3%	27.8%	57.8%
2026-10-19T16:44:14+00:00	76.7%	42.9%	89.3%	27.8%	57.8%
2026-10-19T17:29:26+00:00	76.7%	42.9%	86.8%	27.8%	57.8%
2026-10-19T18:14:37+00:00	76.7%	42.9%	86.8%	27.8%	57.8%
2026-10-19T18:59:50+00:00	76.7%	42.9%	86.8%	27.8%	57.8%
2026-10-19T19:45:25+00:00	80.2%	42.9%	86.8%	19.4%	56.5%
2026-10-19T20:30:36+00:00	80.2%	42.9%	86.8%	19.4%	56.5%
2026-10-19T21:15:50+00:00	80.2%	42.9%	86.8%	19.4%	56.5%
2026-10-19T22:00:58+00:00	80.2%	42.9%	86.8%	19.4%	56.5%
2026-10-19T22:46:10+00:00	80.2%	42.9%	86.8%	19.4%	56.5%
2026-10-19T23:31:24+00:00	80.2%	42.9%	85.8%	19.4%	56.5%
2026-10-20T00:16:42+00:00	80.2%	42.9%	85.8%	19.4%	56.5%
2026-10-20T01:02:35+00:00	80.2%	42.9%	85.8%	19.4%	56.5%
2026-10-20T01:47:43+00:00	77.9%	42.9%	85.8%	19.4%	56.5%
2026-10-20T02:32:54+00:00	77.9%	42.9%	85.8%	19.4%	56.5%
2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00	77.9%	42.9%	85.8%	19.4%	56.5%
2026-10-20T04:04:02+00:00	77.9%	42.9%	85.8%	19.4%	56.5%
2026-10-20T04:51:19+00:00	77.9%	42.9%	85.8%	19.4%	56.5%
2026-10-20T05:36:26+00:00	77.9%	42.9%	87.4%	19.4%	56.5%
2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00	77.9%	42.9%	87.4%	19.4%	56.5%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00	77.9%	42.9%	87.4%	19.4%	56.5%
2026-10-20T07:51:52+00:00	81.5%	42.9%	87.4%	19.4%	74.4%
2026-10-20T08:37:06+00:00	81.5%	42.9%	87.4%	19.4%	74.4%
2026-10-20T09:22:20+00:00	81.5%	42.9%	87.4%	19.4%	74.4%
2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00	81.5%	42.9%	87.4%	19.4%	74.4%
2026-10-20T10:53:05+00:00	81.5%	45.1%	90.6%	46.0%	74.4%
2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00	81.5%	45.1%	90.6%	46.0%	74.4%
2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00	81.5%	45.1%	90.6%	46.0%	74.4%
2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00	81.5%	45.1%	90.6%	46.0%	74.4%
2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:00	81.5%	45.1%	90.6%	46.0%	74.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	91%	68.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	82%	67.6°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	74%	66.7°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	63%	65.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	64.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	46%	63.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	45%	63.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261024-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Richmond high ≥ 64°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗