— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
hres
15¢
nbm
7¢
eps
5¢
ndfd
5¢
aifs
2¢
wn2
1¢
icon
0¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
70–71°F1¢
72–73°F5¢
74–75°F16¢
76–77°F29¢
78–79°F28¢
80–81°F15¢
82–83°F4¢
84–85°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,511 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.514 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KSAN-20261021-TMAX-LE68 · opened 2026-10-17T07:45:19+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape