KSAN / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≤ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

15%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 7.6¢Risks 3.82u

ICONNO 92.3¢Risks 46.17u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +46.17u · ICON −46.17u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T07:45:19+00:00	2.2%	17.7%	6.0%	17.4%	5.7%
2026-10-17T08:31:11+00:00	2.2%	17.7%	6.0%	17.4%	5.7%
2026-10-17T09:16:45+00:00	2.2%	17.7%	6.0%	17.4%	5.7%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00	2.2%	17.7%	6.0%	17.4%	5.7%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	2.2%	17.7%	6.0%	17.4%	5.7%
2026-10-17T11:32:18+00:00	2.2%	4.6%	1.2%	17.4%	5.7%
2026-10-17T12:17:30+00:00	2.2%	4.6%	1.2%	17.4%	5.7%
2026-10-17T13:02:38+00:00	2.2%	4.6%	1.2%	17.4%	5.7%
2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:00	4.0%	4.6%	1.2%	17.4%	5.7%
2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:00	4.1%	4.8%	1.2%	17.4%	5.7%
2026-10-17T15:25:21+00:00	4.1%	5.4%	1.2%	17.4%	5.7%
2026-10-17T16:10:35+00:00	4.1%	5.4%	1.2%	17.4%	5.7%
2026-10-17T16:55:44+00:00	4.1%	5.4%	2.8%	17.4%	5.7%
2026-10-17T17:40:52+00:00	4.1%	5.4%	2.8%	17.4%	5.7%
2026-10-17T18:25:59+00:00	4.1%	5.4%	2.8%	17.4%	5.7%
2026-10-17T19:11:06+00:00	4.1%	5.4%	2.8%	17.4%	5.7%
2026-10-17T19:56:20+00:00	2.4%	5.4%	2.8%	14.9%	0.4%
2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00	2.4%	5.4%	2.8%	14.9%	0.4%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	2.4%	5.4%	2.8%	14.9%	0.4%
2026-10-17T22:11:57+00:00	2.4%	5.4%	2.8%	14.9%	0.4%
2026-10-17T22:57:07+00:00	2.4%	5.4%	1.6%	14.9%	0.4%
2026-10-17T23:42:15+00:00	2.4%	5.4%	1.6%	14.9%	0.4%
2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00	2.4%	5.4%	1.6%	14.9%	0.4%
2026-10-18T01:12:58+00:00	2.4%	5.4%	1.6%	14.9%	0.4%
2026-10-18T01:58:16+00:00	1.9%	5.4%	1.6%	14.9%	0.4%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00	1.9%	5.4%	1.6%	14.9%	0.4%
2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00	1.9%	5.4%	1.6%	14.9%	0.4%
2026-10-18T04:15:00+00:00	1.9%	5.4%	1.6%	14.9%	0.4%
2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00	1.9%	5.4%	1.0%	14.9%	0.4%
2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:00	1.9%	5.4%	1.0%	14.9%	0.4%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00	1.9%	5.4%	1.0%	14.9%	0.4%
2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00	1.9%	5.4%	1.0%	14.9%	0.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	15%	73.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	7%	75.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	5%	77.4°F	5.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	5%	75.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	2%	78.0°F	4.6°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	1%	77.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
ICON	<1%	81.4°F	4.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 68°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261021-TMAX-LE68
Opened Oct 17 · 07:45 UTC

Original listing: San Diego stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 68°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗