— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
icon
66¢
nbm
42¢
ndfd
40¢
hres
33¢
aifs
26¢
wn2
14¢
eps
13¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
66–67°F1¢
68–69°F2¢
70–71°F4¢
72–73°F8¢
74–75°F12¢
76–77°F15¢
78–79°F16¢
80–81°F15¢
82–83°F12¢
84–85°F7¢
86–87°F4¢
88–89°F2¢
90–91°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 6, scored on 14,266 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.855 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KSAN-20261026-TMAX-GE82 · opened 2026-10-19T07:33:58+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape