KSAN / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST26%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

66%

33%

26%

14%

13%

Consensus

26%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 39.5¢Risks 39.50u

EPSNO 60.5¢Risks 60.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +60.50u · EPS −60.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T07:33:58+00:00	22.7%	15.2%	13.3%	28.8%	11.7%
2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00	22.7%	15.2%	13.3%	28.8%	11.7%
2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00	22.7%	15.2%	13.3%	28.8%	11.7%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	22.7%	15.2%	13.3%	28.8%	11.7%
2026-10-19T10:35:28+00:00	22.7%	15.2%	13.3%	28.8%	11.7%
2026-10-19T11:21:23+00:00	22.7%	20.5%	12.8%	28.8%	11.7%
2026-10-19T12:06:41+00:00	22.7%	20.5%	12.8%	28.8%	11.7%
2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00	22.7%	20.5%	12.8%	28.8%	11.7%
2026-10-19T13:37:08+00:00	36.4%	20.5%	12.8%	28.8%	11.7%
2026-10-19T14:28:06+00:00	36.4%	20.5%	12.8%	28.8%	11.8%
2026-10-19T15:14:00+00:00	36.4%	20.6%	12.8%	28.8%	11.8%
2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00	36.4%	20.6%	12.8%	28.8%	11.8%
2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00	36.4%	20.6%	12.8%	28.8%	11.8%
2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00	36.4%	20.6%	14.5%	28.8%	11.8%
2026-10-19T18:14:42+00:00	36.4%	20.6%	14.5%	28.8%	11.8%
2026-10-19T19:00:23+00:00	36.4%	20.6%	14.5%	28.8%	11.8%
2026-10-19T19:45:33+00:00	26.0%	20.6%	14.5%	36.6%	62.9%
2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00	26.0%	20.6%	14.5%	36.6%	62.9%
2026-10-19T21:15:56+00:00	26.0%	20.6%	14.5%	36.6%	62.9%
2026-10-19T22:01:05+00:00	26.0%	20.6%	14.5%	36.6%	62.9%
2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00	26.0%	20.6%	14.5%	36.6%	62.9%
2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00	26.0%	20.6%	16.3%	36.6%	62.9%
2026-10-20T00:17:11+00:00	26.0%	20.6%	16.3%	36.6%	62.9%
2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00	26.0%	20.6%	16.3%	36.6%	62.9%
2026-10-20T01:47:51+00:00	23.8%	20.6%	16.3%	36.6%	62.9%
2026-10-20T02:33:00+00:00	23.8%	20.6%	16.3%	36.6%	62.9%
2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:00	23.8%	20.6%	16.3%	36.6%	62.9%
2026-10-20T04:05:50+00:00	23.8%	20.6%	16.3%	36.6%	62.9%
2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00	23.8%	20.6%	16.3%	36.6%	62.9%
2026-10-20T05:36:36+00:00	23.8%	20.6%	17.3%	36.6%	62.9%
2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00	23.8%	20.6%	17.3%	36.6%	62.9%
2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00	23.8%	20.6%	17.3%	36.6%	62.9%
2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:00	25.8%	20.6%	17.3%	36.6%	65.8%
2026-10-20T08:37:11+00:00	25.8%	20.6%	17.3%	36.6%	65.8%
2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00	25.8%	20.6%	17.3%	36.6%	65.8%
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00	25.8%	20.6%	17.3%	36.6%	65.8%
2026-10-20T10:54:26+00:00	25.8%	13.2%	14.2%	33.0%	65.8%
2026-10-20T11:39:49+00:00	25.8%	13.2%	14.2%	33.0%	65.8%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00	25.8%	13.2%	14.2%	33.0%	65.8%
2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00	25.8%	13.2%	14.2%	33.0%	65.8%
2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00	25.8%	13.2%	14.2%	33.0%	65.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	66%	84.4°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	42%	80.0°F	7.8°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	40%	80.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	33%	78.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	26%	78.0°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	14%	76.5°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	13%	76.6°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261026-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: San Diego runs hot-for-here: 82°F+ · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗