— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
hres
71¢
eps
62¢
aifs
56¢
nbm
53¢
wn2
45¢
icon
24¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
64–65°F1¢
66–67°F2¢
68–69°F4¢
70–71°F7¢
72–73°F10¢
74–75°F14¢
76–77°F15¢
78–79°F15¢
80–81°F12¢
82–83°F9¢
84–85°F6¢
86–87°F3¢
88–89°F1¢
90–91°F0¢
calibration receipt: lead 7, scored on 8,387 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.601 vs climatology 8.75.
Receipts
prop id WP-KSAN-20261027-TMAX-GE77 · opened 2026-10-20T10:54:26+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape