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KSAN / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST54%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
71%
EPS
62%
AIFS
56%
WN2
45%
ICON
24%
Consensus
54%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 47.5¢Risks 47.55u
VS
ICONNO 52.4¢Risks 52.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +52.45u · ICON −52.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 56.2% · 2026-10-20T10:54:26+00:00AIFS Single: 56.2% · 2026-10-20T11:39:49+00:00AIFS Single: 56.2% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00AIFS Single: 56.2% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00AIFS Single: 56.2% · 2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.1% · 2026-10-20T10:54:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.1% · 2026-10-20T11:39:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.1% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.1% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.1% · 2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 45.3% · 2026-10-20T10:54:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 45.3% · 2026-10-20T11:39:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 45.3% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 45.3% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 45.3% · 2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00IFS HRES: 71.2% · 2026-10-20T10:54:26+00:00IFS HRES: 71.2% · 2026-10-20T11:39:49+00:00IFS HRES: 71.2% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00IFS HRES: 71.2% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00IFS HRES: 71.2% · 2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00ICON: 24.0% · 2026-10-20T10:54:26+00:00ICON: 24.0% · 2026-10-20T11:39:49+00:00ICON: 24.0% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00ICON: 24.0% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00ICON: 23.9% · 2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:0010-20 10:5410-20 12:2410-20 13:55
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T10:54:26+00:0056.2%62.1%45.3%71.2%24.0%
2026-10-20T11:39:49+00:0056.2%62.1%45.3%71.2%24.0%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:0056.2%62.1%45.3%71.2%24.0%
2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:0056.2%62.1%45.3%71.2%24.0%
2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:0056.2%62.1%45.3%71.2%23.9%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES71%80.1°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble62%78.3°F5.8°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single56%77.4°F5.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend53%77.0°F7.7°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 245%75.9°F5.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON24%69.4°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261027-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 20 · 10:54 UTC

Original listing: San Diego high ≥ 77°F · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗