— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
72¢
icon
72¢
hres
61¢
ndfd
55¢
aifs
45¢
nbm
41¢
wn2
38¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
76–77°F1¢
78–79°F4¢
80–81°F13¢
82–83°F26¢
84–85°F29¢
86–87°F19¢
88–89°F7¢
90–91°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,413 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.902 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KSAT-20261023-TMAX-GE84 · opened 2026-10-20T04:05:20+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape