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KSAT / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Antonio, TXHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST56%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
72%
ICON
72%
HRES
61%
AIFS
45%
WN2
38%
Consensus
56%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 55.0¢Risks 55.05u
VS
WN2NO 45.0¢Risks 44.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +44.95u · WN2 −44.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 45.7% · 2026-10-20T04:05:20+00:00AIFS Single: 45.7% · 2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00AIFS Single: 45.7% · 2026-10-20T05:36:34+00:00AIFS Single: 45.7% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00AIFS Single: 45.7% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00AIFS Single: 45.3% · 2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:00AIFS Single: 45.3% · 2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00AIFS Single: 45.3% · 2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00AIFS Single: 45.3% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00AIFS Single: 45.3% · 2026-10-20T10:54:04+00:00AIFS Single: 45.3% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00AIFS Single: 45.3% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00AIFS Single: 45.3% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.3% · 2026-10-20T04:05:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.3% · 2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.3% · 2026-10-20T05:36:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.3% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.3% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.3% · 2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.3% · 2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.3% · 2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.3% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.8% · 2026-10-20T10:54:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.8% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.8% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.8% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 32.4% · 2026-10-20T04:05:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 32.4% · 2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 43.6% · 2026-10-20T05:36:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 43.6% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 43.6% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 43.6% · 2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 43.6% · 2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 43.6% · 2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 43.6% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 38.3% · 2026-10-20T10:54:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 38.3% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 38.3% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 38.3% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00IFS HRES: 57.9% · 2026-10-20T04:05:20+00:00IFS HRES: 57.9% · 2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00IFS HRES: 57.9% · 2026-10-20T05:36:34+00:00IFS HRES: 57.9% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00IFS HRES: 57.9% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00IFS HRES: 57.9% · 2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:00IFS HRES: 57.9% · 2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00IFS HRES: 57.9% · 2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00IFS HRES: 57.9% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00IFS HRES: 60.6% · 2026-10-20T10:54:04+00:00IFS HRES: 60.6% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00IFS HRES: 60.6% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00IFS HRES: 60.6% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00ICON: 65.9% · 2026-10-20T04:05:20+00:00ICON: 65.9% · 2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00ICON: 65.9% · 2026-10-20T05:36:34+00:00ICON: 65.9% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00ICON: 65.9% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00ICON: 71.8% · 2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:00ICON: 71.8% · 2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00ICON: 71.8% · 2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00ICON: 71.8% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00ICON: 71.8% · 2026-10-20T10:54:04+00:00ICON: 71.8% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00ICON: 71.8% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00ICON: 71.8% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:0010-20 04:0510-20 08:3710-20 13:10
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T04:05:20+00:0045.7%74.3%32.4%57.9%65.9%
2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:0045.7%74.3%32.4%57.9%65.9%
2026-10-20T05:36:34+00:0045.7%74.3%43.6%57.9%65.9%
2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:0045.7%74.3%43.6%57.9%65.9%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:0045.7%74.3%43.6%57.9%65.9%
2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:0045.3%74.3%43.6%57.9%71.8%
2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:0045.3%74.3%43.6%57.9%71.8%
2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:0045.3%74.3%43.6%57.9%71.8%
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:0045.3%74.3%43.6%57.9%71.8%
2026-10-20T10:54:04+00:0045.3%71.8%38.3%60.6%71.8%
2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:0045.3%71.8%38.3%60.6%71.8%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:0045.3%71.8%38.3%60.6%71.8%
2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:0045.3%71.8%38.3%60.6%71.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble72%84.9°F2.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON72%85.8°F4.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES61%84.7°F4.5°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
NWS forecast55%84.0°F3.9°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
AIFS Single45%83.0°F4.3°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend41%83.0°F2.2°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 238%82.5°F3.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KSAT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAT-20261023-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 20 · 04:05 UTC

Original listing: San Antonio high ≥ 84°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗