— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
icon
62¢
ndfd
53¢
nbm
44¢
hres
39¢
eps
39¢
aifs
28¢
wn2
23¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
74–75°F1¢
76–77°F3¢
78–79°F9¢
80–81°F17¢
82–83°F24¢
84–85°F23¢
86–87°F15¢
88–89°F6¢
90–91°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 5, scored on 14,315 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.48 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KSAT-20261025-TMAX-GE86 · opened 2026-10-18T11:02:56+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape