KSAT / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Antonio, TXHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST38%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

62%

39%

39%

28%

23%

Consensus

38%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 42.4¢Risks 42.45u

WN2NO 57.6¢Risks 57.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +57.55u · WN2 −57.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T11:02:56+00:00	30.7%	48.7%	24.7%	39.0%	10.3%
2026-10-18T11:48:17+00:00	30.7%	48.7%	24.7%	39.0%	10.3%
2026-10-18T12:33:51+00:00	30.7%	48.7%	24.7%	39.0%	10.3%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00	30.7%	48.7%	24.7%	39.0%	10.3%
2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:00	35.7%	48.7%	24.7%	39.0%	10.2%
2026-10-18T14:56:01+00:00	35.7%	48.7%	24.7%	39.0%	10.2%
2026-10-18T15:41:33+00:00	35.7%	40.8%	24.7%	39.0%	10.2%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	35.7%	40.8%	24.7%	39.0%	10.2%
2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:00	35.7%	40.8%	27.9%	39.0%	10.2%
2026-10-18T17:57:33+00:00	35.7%	40.8%	27.9%	39.0%	10.2%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	35.7%	40.8%	27.9%	39.0%	10.2%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	31.9%	40.8%	27.9%	36.1%	42.9%
2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00	31.9%	40.8%	27.9%	36.1%	42.9%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00	31.9%	40.8%	27.9%	36.1%	42.9%
2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00	31.9%	40.8%	27.9%	36.1%	42.9%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	31.9%	40.8%	27.9%	36.1%	42.9%
2026-10-18T23:13:43+00:00	31.9%	40.8%	27.9%	36.1%	42.9%
2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00	31.9%	40.8%	27.9%	36.1%	42.9%
2026-10-19T00:44:10+00:00	31.9%	40.8%	27.9%	36.1%	42.9%
2026-10-19T01:29:37+00:00	33.8%	40.8%	27.9%	36.1%	42.9%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	33.8%	40.8%	27.9%	36.1%	42.9%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	33.8%	40.8%	27.9%	36.1%	42.9%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	33.8%	40.8%	27.9%	36.1%	42.9%
2026-10-19T04:31:21+00:00	33.8%	40.8%	27.9%	36.1%	42.9%
2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00	33.8%	40.8%	29.2%	36.1%	42.9%
2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00	33.8%	40.8%	29.2%	36.1%	42.9%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	33.8%	40.8%	29.2%	36.1%	42.9%
2026-10-19T07:33:34+00:00	32.2%	40.8%	29.2%	37.5%	52.2%
2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00	32.2%	40.8%	29.2%	37.5%	52.2%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	32.2%	40.8%	29.2%	37.5%	52.2%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00	32.2%	40.8%	29.2%	37.5%	52.2%
2026-10-19T10:35:22+00:00	32.2%	40.8%	29.2%	37.5%	52.2%
2026-10-19T11:21:10+00:00	32.2%	41.6%	24.0%	37.5%	52.2%
2026-10-19T12:06:38+00:00	32.2%	41.6%	24.0%	37.5%	52.2%
2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00	32.2%	41.6%	24.0%	37.5%	52.2%
2026-10-19T13:37:03+00:00	35.6%	41.6%	24.0%	37.5%	52.2%
2026-10-19T14:28:03+00:00	35.6%	41.6%	24.0%	37.5%	51.7%
2026-10-19T15:13:49+00:00	35.6%	38.9%	24.0%	37.5%	51.7%
2026-10-19T15:59:09+00:00	35.6%	38.9%	24.0%	37.5%	51.7%
2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00	35.6%	38.9%	24.0%	37.5%	51.7%
2026-10-19T17:29:33+00:00	35.6%	38.9%	24.7%	37.5%	51.7%
2026-10-19T18:14:40+00:00	35.6%	38.9%	24.7%	37.5%	51.7%
2026-10-19T19:00:12+00:00	35.6%	38.9%	24.7%	37.5%	51.7%
2026-10-19T19:45:31+00:00	32.8%	38.9%	24.7%	39.2%	61.6%
2026-10-19T20:30:41+00:00	32.8%	38.9%	24.7%	39.2%	61.6%
2026-10-19T21:15:55+00:00	32.8%	38.9%	24.7%	39.2%	61.6%
2026-10-19T22:01:04+00:00	32.8%	38.9%	24.7%	39.2%	61.6%
2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00	32.8%	38.9%	24.7%	39.2%	61.6%
2026-10-19T23:31:30+00:00	32.8%	38.9%	23.3%	39.2%	61.6%
2026-10-20T00:17:03+00:00	32.8%	38.9%	23.3%	39.2%	61.6%
2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00	32.8%	38.9%	23.3%	39.2%	61.6%
2026-10-20T01:47:50+00:00	27.7%	38.9%	23.3%	39.2%	61.6%
2026-10-20T02:32:59+00:00	27.7%	38.9%	23.3%	39.2%	61.6%
2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00	27.7%	38.9%	23.3%	39.2%	61.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	62%	87.6°F	7.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	86.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	85.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	39%	83.7°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	39%	84.7°F	2.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	28%	82.3°F	5.4°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	23%	82.1°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KSAT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAT-20261025-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 18 · 11:02 UTC

Original listing: San Antonio high ≥ 86°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗