— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
icon
42¢
hres
19¢
aifs
16¢
ndfd
14¢
eps
11¢
wn2
8¢
nbm
5¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
74–75°F1¢
76–77°F3¢
78–79°F9¢
80–81°F17¢
82–83°F24¢
84–85°F23¢
86–87°F15¢
88–89°F6¢
90–91°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 5, scored on 14,315 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.48 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KSAT-20261025-TMAX-GE88 · opened 2026-10-18T11:02:57+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape