KSAT / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Antonio, TXHigh ≥ 88°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST9%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

42%

19%

16%

11%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 24.9¢Risks 24.95u

WN2NO 75.0¢Risks 75.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +75.05u · WN2 −75.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T11:02:57+00:00	19.7%	24.2%	14.1%	27.8%	7.1%
2026-10-18T11:48:17+00:00	19.7%	24.2%	14.1%	27.8%	7.1%
2026-10-18T12:33:51+00:00	19.7%	24.2%	14.1%	27.8%	7.1%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00	19.7%	24.2%	14.1%	27.8%	7.1%
2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:00	23.8%	24.2%	14.1%	27.8%	7.1%
2026-10-18T14:56:01+00:00	23.8%	24.2%	14.1%	27.8%	7.1%
2026-10-18T15:41:33+00:00	23.8%	18.4%	14.1%	27.8%	7.1%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	23.8%	18.4%	14.1%	27.8%	7.1%
2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:00	23.8%	18.4%	16.4%	27.8%	7.1%
2026-10-18T17:57:33+00:00	23.8%	18.4%	16.4%	27.8%	7.1%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	23.8%	18.4%	16.4%	27.8%	7.1%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	20.7%	18.4%	16.4%	25.2%	35.2%
2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00	20.7%	18.4%	16.4%	25.2%	35.2%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00	20.7%	18.4%	16.4%	25.2%	35.2%
2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00	20.7%	18.4%	16.4%	25.2%	35.2%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	20.7%	18.4%	16.4%	25.2%	35.2%
2026-10-18T23:13:43+00:00	20.7%	18.4%	16.4%	25.2%	35.2%
2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00	20.7%	18.4%	16.4%	25.2%	35.2%
2026-10-19T00:44:10+00:00	20.7%	18.4%	16.4%	25.2%	35.2%
2026-10-19T01:29:37+00:00	22.2%	18.4%	16.4%	25.2%	35.2%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	22.2%	18.4%	16.4%	25.2%	35.2%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	22.2%	18.4%	16.4%	25.2%	35.2%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	22.2%	18.4%	16.4%	25.2%	35.2%
2026-10-19T04:31:21+00:00	22.2%	18.4%	16.4%	25.2%	35.2%
2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00	22.2%	18.4%	17.4%	25.2%	35.2%
2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00	22.2%	18.4%	17.4%	25.2%	35.2%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	22.2%	18.4%	17.4%	25.2%	35.2%
2026-10-19T07:33:34+00:00	20.3%	18.4%	17.4%	26.7%	41.1%
2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00	20.3%	18.4%	17.4%	26.7%	41.1%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	20.3%	18.4%	17.4%	26.7%	41.1%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00	20.3%	18.4%	17.4%	26.7%	41.1%
2026-10-19T10:35:22+00:00	20.3%	18.4%	17.4%	26.7%	41.1%
2026-10-19T11:21:10+00:00	20.3%	17.8%	12.8%	26.7%	41.1%
2026-10-19T12:06:38+00:00	20.3%	17.8%	12.8%	26.7%	41.1%
2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00	20.3%	17.8%	12.8%	26.7%	41.1%
2026-10-19T13:37:03+00:00	23.0%	17.8%	12.8%	26.7%	41.1%
2026-10-19T14:28:03+00:00	22.9%	17.8%	12.8%	26.7%	40.6%
2026-10-19T15:13:49+00:00	22.9%	16.1%	12.8%	26.7%	40.6%
2026-10-19T15:59:09+00:00	22.9%	16.1%	12.8%	26.7%	40.6%
2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00	22.9%	16.1%	12.8%	26.7%	40.6%
2026-10-19T17:29:33+00:00	22.9%	16.1%	13.3%	26.7%	40.6%
2026-10-19T18:14:40+00:00	22.9%	16.1%	13.3%	26.7%	40.6%
2026-10-19T19:00:12+00:00	22.9%	16.1%	13.3%	26.7%	40.6%
2026-10-19T19:45:31+00:00	20.8%	16.1%	13.3%	28.2%	50.6%
2026-10-19T20:30:41+00:00	20.8%	16.1%	13.3%	28.2%	50.6%
2026-10-19T21:15:55+00:00	20.8%	16.1%	13.3%	28.2%	50.6%
2026-10-19T22:01:04+00:00	20.8%	16.1%	13.3%	28.2%	50.6%
2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00	20.8%	16.1%	13.3%	28.2%	50.6%
2026-10-19T23:31:30+00:00	20.8%	16.1%	12.4%	28.2%	50.6%
2026-10-20T00:17:03+00:00	20.8%	16.1%	12.4%	28.2%	50.6%
2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00	20.8%	16.1%	12.4%	28.2%	50.6%
2026-10-20T01:47:50+00:00	16.8%	16.1%	12.4%	28.2%	50.6%
2026-10-20T02:32:59+00:00	16.8%	16.1%	12.4%	28.2%	50.6%
2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00	16.8%	16.1%	12.4%	28.2%	50.6%
2026-10-20T04:05:23+00:00	16.8%	16.1%	12.4%	28.2%	50.6%
2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00	16.8%	16.1%	12.4%	28.2%	50.6%
2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:00	16.8%	16.1%	13.7%	28.2%	50.6%
2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00	16.8%	16.1%	13.7%	28.2%	50.6%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00	16.8%	16.1%	13.7%	28.2%	50.6%
2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:00	15.6%	16.1%	13.7%	28.2%	41.6%
2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00	15.6%	16.1%	13.7%	28.2%	41.6%
2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00	15.6%	16.1%	13.7%	28.2%	41.6%
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00	15.6%	16.1%	13.7%	28.2%	41.6%
2026-10-20T10:54:04+00:00	15.6%	10.6%	8.3%	19.4%	41.6%
2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00	15.6%	10.6%	8.3%	19.4%	41.6%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00	15.6%	10.6%	8.3%	19.4%	41.6%
2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00	15.6%	10.6%	8.3%	19.4%	41.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	42%	86.2°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	19%	82.5°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	16%	82.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	14%	82.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	11%	84.5°F	2.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	8%	81.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	5%	82.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 88°F · KSAT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAT-20261025-TMAX-GE88
Opened Oct 18 · 11:02 UTC

Original listing: San Antonio runs hot-for-here: 88°F+ · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗