— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
aifs
14¢
icon
13¢
nbm
12¢
wn2
8¢
eps
6¢
hres
2¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
68–69°F1¢
70–71°F2¢
72–73°F5¢
74–75°F10¢
76–77°F15¢
78–79°F18¢
80–81°F18¢
82–83°F14¢
84–85°F9¢
86–87°F5¢
88–89°F2¢
90–91°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 7, scored on 8,387 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.601 vs climatology 8.75.
Receipts
prop id WP-KSAT-20261027-TMAX-GE87 · opened 2026-10-20T10:54:05+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape