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KSAT / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Antonio, TXHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST5%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
14%
ICON
13%
WN2
8%
EPS
6%
HRES
2%
Consensus
5%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 7.7¢Risks 3.83u
VS
HRESNO 92.3¢Risks 46.17u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +46.17u · HRES −46.17u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 13.6% · 2026-10-20T10:54:05+00:00AIFS Single: 13.6% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00AIFS Single: 13.6% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00AIFS Single: 13.6% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 6.1% · 2026-10-20T10:54:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 6.1% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 6.1% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 6.1% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.9% · 2026-10-20T10:54:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.9% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.9% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.9% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00IFS HRES: 1.7% · 2026-10-20T10:54:05+00:00IFS HRES: 1.7% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00IFS HRES: 1.7% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00IFS HRES: 1.7% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00ICON: 13.2% · 2026-10-20T10:54:05+00:00ICON: 13.2% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00ICON: 13.2% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00ICON: 13.2% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:0010-20 10:5410-20 12:2410-20 13:10
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T10:54:05+00:0013.6%6.1%7.9%1.7%13.2%
2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:0013.6%6.1%7.9%1.7%13.2%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:0013.6%6.1%7.9%1.7%13.2%
2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:0013.6%6.1%7.9%1.7%13.2%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single14%80.2°F5.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON13%75.3°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend12%80.0°F5.5°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 28%79.3°F5.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble6%81.1°F3.5°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES2%72.8°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KSAT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAT-20261027-TMAX-GE87
Opened Oct 20 · 10:54 UTC

Original listing: San Antonio runs hot-for-here: 87°F+ · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗