— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
29¢
aifs
15¢
hres
9¢
wn2
4¢
icon
3¢
ndfd
3¢
nbm
1¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
54–55°F1¢
56–57°F13¢
58–59°F40¢
60–61°F36¢
62–63°F9¢
64–65°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,205 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.906 vs climatology 8.875.
Receipts
prop id WP-KSEA-20261018-TMAX-GE66 · opened 2026-10-11T07:32:39+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape