KSEA / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Oct 16 · 04:25 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

29%

15%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 16.1¢Risks 16.15u

ICONNO 83.9¢Risks 83.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +83.85u · ICON −83.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T04:25:01+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T07:32:39+00:00	27.1%	34.6%	23.7%	18.9%	—
2026-10-11T08:18:04+00:00	27.1%	34.6%	23.7%	18.9%	—
2026-10-11T09:03:12+00:00	27.1%	34.6%	23.7%	18.9%	—
2026-10-11T09:48:17+00:00	27.1%	34.6%	23.7%	18.9%	—
2026-10-11T10:34:19+00:00	27.1%	34.6%	23.7%	18.9%	—
2026-10-11T11:20:14+00:00	27.1%	36.4%	26.5%	18.9%	—
2026-10-11T12:05:24+00:00	27.1%	36.4%	26.5%	18.9%	—
2026-10-11T12:50:30+00:00	27.1%	36.4%	26.5%	18.9%	—
2026-10-11T13:35:56+00:00	27.1%	36.4%	26.5%	18.9%	—
2026-10-11T14:26:16+00:00	27.2%	36.4%	26.5%	18.9%	—
2026-10-11T15:12:10+00:00	27.2%	35.2%	26.5%	18.9%	—
2026-10-11T15:57:21+00:00	27.2%	35.2%	26.5%	18.9%	—
2026-10-11T16:42:27+00:00	27.2%	35.2%	26.5%	18.9%	—
2026-10-11T17:28:04+00:00	27.2%	35.2%	25.9%	18.9%	—
2026-10-11T18:13:14+00:00	27.2%	35.2%	25.9%	18.9%	—
2026-10-11T18:58:21+00:00	27.2%	35.2%	25.9%	18.9%	—
2026-10-11T19:43:34+00:00	15.4%	35.2%	25.9%	40.6%	39.2%
2026-10-11T20:28:42+00:00	15.4%	35.2%	25.9%	40.6%	39.2%
2026-10-11T21:13:55+00:00	15.4%	35.2%	25.9%	40.6%	39.2%
2026-10-11T21:59:02+00:00	15.4%	35.2%	25.9%	40.6%	39.2%
2026-10-11T22:44:16+00:00	15.4%	35.2%	25.9%	40.6%	39.2%
2026-10-11T23:29:37+00:00	15.4%	35.2%	20.4%	40.6%	39.2%
2026-10-12T00:14:46+00:00	15.4%	35.2%	20.4%	40.6%	39.2%
2026-10-12T01:00:16+00:00	15.4%	35.2%	20.4%	40.6%	39.2%
2026-10-12T01:45:25+00:00	20.5%	35.2%	20.4%	40.6%	39.2%
2026-10-12T02:30:31+00:00	20.5%	35.2%	20.4%	40.6%	39.2%
2026-10-12T03:15:39+00:00	20.5%	35.2%	20.4%	40.6%	39.2%
2026-10-12T04:01:58+00:00	20.5%	35.2%	20.4%	40.6%	39.2%
2026-10-12T04:47:16+00:00	20.5%	35.2%	20.4%	40.6%	39.2%
2026-10-12T05:32:23+00:00	20.5%	35.2%	18.2%	40.6%	39.2%
2026-10-12T06:17:30+00:00	20.5%	35.2%	18.2%	40.6%	39.2%
2026-10-12T07:02:36+00:00	20.5%	35.2%	18.2%	40.6%	39.2%
2026-10-12T07:49:00+00:00	20.9%	35.2%	18.2%	50.0%	25.6%
2026-10-12T08:34:32+00:00	20.9%	35.2%	18.2%	50.0%	25.6%
2026-10-12T09:19:40+00:00	20.9%	35.2%	18.2%	50.0%	25.6%
2026-10-12T10:05:01+00:00	20.9%	35.2%	18.2%	50.0%	25.6%
2026-10-12T10:50:14+00:00	20.9%	35.2%	18.2%	50.0%	25.6%
2026-10-12T11:35:40+00:00	20.9%	35.2%	18.4%	50.0%	25.6%
2026-10-12T12:20:51+00:00	20.9%	32.5%	18.4%	50.0%	25.6%
2026-10-12T13:05:59+00:00	20.9%	32.5%	18.4%	50.0%	25.6%
2026-10-12T13:51:10+00:00	22.5%	32.5%	18.4%	50.0%	25.6%
2026-10-12T14:41:20+00:00	22.6%	32.8%	18.5%	50.0%	25.6%
2026-10-12T15:27:46+00:00	22.6%	32.8%	18.5%	50.0%	25.6%
2026-10-12T16:12:58+00:00	22.6%	32.0%	18.5%	50.0%	25.6%
2026-10-12T16:58:07+00:00	22.6%	31.7%	18.5%	50.0%	25.6%
2026-10-12T17:43:16+00:00	22.6%	31.7%	17.9%	50.0%	25.6%
2026-10-12T18:28:22+00:00	22.6%	31.7%	17.9%	50.0%	25.6%
2026-10-12T19:13:28+00:00	22.6%	31.7%	17.9%	50.0%	25.6%
2026-10-12T19:58:38+00:00	14.6%	31.7%	17.9%	41.6%	28.0%
2026-10-12T20:43:45+00:00	14.6%	31.7%	17.9%	41.6%	28.0%
2026-10-12T21:28:52+00:00	14.6%	31.7%	17.9%	41.6%	28.0%
2026-10-12T22:13:59+00:00	14.6%	31.7%	17.9%	41.6%	28.0%
2026-10-12T22:59:14+00:00	14.6%	31.7%	20.9%	41.6%	28.0%
2026-10-12T23:44:20+00:00	14.6%	31.7%	20.9%	41.6%	28.0%
2026-10-13T00:29:26+00:00	14.6%	31.7%	20.9%	41.6%	28.0%
2026-10-13T01:14:42+00:00	14.6%	31.7%	20.9%	41.6%	28.0%
2026-10-13T01:59:50+00:00	13.7%	31.7%	20.9%	41.6%	28.0%
2026-10-13T02:44:58+00:00	13.7%	31.7%	20.9%	41.6%	28.0%
2026-10-13T03:30:04+00:00	13.7%	31.7%	20.9%	41.6%	28.0%
2026-10-13T04:16:27+00:00	13.7%	31.7%	20.9%	41.6%	28.0%
2026-10-13T05:01:47+00:00	13.7%	31.7%	20.9%	41.6%	28.0%
2026-10-13T05:46:54+00:00	13.7%	31.7%	13.2%	41.6%	28.0%
2026-10-13T06:32:13+00:00	13.7%	31.7%	13.2%	41.6%	28.0%
2026-10-13T07:17:20+00:00	13.7%	31.7%	13.2%	41.6%	28.0%
2026-10-13T08:04:16+00:00	15.9%	31.7%	13.2%	19.8%	27.0%
2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00	15.9%	31.7%	13.2%	19.8%	27.0%
2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00	15.9%	31.7%	13.2%	19.8%	27.0%
2026-10-13T10:19:59+00:00	15.9%	31.7%	13.2%	19.8%	27.0%
2026-10-13T11:05:27+00:00	15.9%	31.7%	13.2%	19.8%	27.0%
2026-10-13T11:50:43+00:00	15.9%	27.3%	12.5%	19.8%	27.0%
2026-10-13T12:35:51+00:00	15.9%	27.3%	12.5%	19.8%	27.0%
2026-10-13T13:20:57+00:00	15.9%	27.3%	12.5%	19.8%	27.0%
2026-10-13T14:06:05+00:00	12.9%	27.3%	12.6%	19.8%	27.1%
2026-10-13T14:56:06+00:00	12.9%	27.3%	12.6%	19.8%	27.1%
2026-10-13T15:41:51+00:00	12.9%	26.8%	12.6%	19.8%	27.1%
2026-10-13T16:27:05+00:00	12.9%	26.8%	12.6%	20.2%	27.1%
2026-10-13T17:12:13+00:00	12.9%	26.8%	14.2%	20.2%	27.1%
2026-10-13T17:57:20+00:00	12.9%	26.8%	14.2%	20.2%	27.1%
2026-10-13T18:42:25+00:00	12.9%	26.8%	14.2%	20.2%	27.1%
2026-10-13T19:27:30+00:00	12.9%	26.8%	14.2%	20.2%	27.1%
2026-10-13T20:12:39+00:00	12.1%	26.8%	14.2%	20.2%	27.6%
2026-10-13T20:57:45+00:00	12.1%	26.8%	14.2%	20.2%	27.6%
2026-10-13T21:43:20+00:00	12.1%	26.8%	14.2%	20.2%	27.6%
2026-10-13T22:28:26+00:00	12.1%	26.8%	14.2%	20.2%	27.6%
2026-10-13T23:13:39+00:00	12.1%	26.8%	13.7%	18.7%	27.6%
2026-10-13T23:58:47+00:00	12.1%	26.8%	13.7%	18.4%	27.6%
2026-10-14T00:43:55+00:00	12.1%	26.8%	13.7%	18.4%	27.6%
2026-10-14T01:29:14+00:00	12.5%	26.8%	13.7%	18.4%	27.6%
2026-10-14T02:14:21+00:00	12.5%	26.8%	13.7%	18.4%	27.6%
2026-10-14T03:00:06+00:00	12.5%	26.8%	13.7%	18.4%	27.6%
2026-10-14T03:45:41+00:00	12.5%	26.8%	13.7%	18.4%	27.6%
2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:00	12.5%	26.8%	13.7%	18.4%	27.6%
2026-10-14T05:15:55+00:00	12.5%	26.8%	13.7%	18.4%	27.6%
2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:00	12.5%	26.8%	13.7%	18.4%	27.6%
2026-10-14T06:46:19+00:00	12.5%	26.8%	13.7%	18.4%	27.6%
2026-10-14T07:31:29+00:00	8.2%	26.8%	13.7%	18.4%	7.9%
2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00	8.2%	26.8%	13.7%	18.4%	7.9%
2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:00	8.2%	26.8%	13.7%	18.4%	7.9%
2026-10-14T09:46:56+00:00	8.2%	26.8%	13.7%	18.4%	7.9%
2026-10-14T10:34:37+00:00	8.2%	26.8%	13.7%	8.4%	7.9%
2026-10-14T19:43:41+00:00	19.8%	24.5%	8.9%	15.9%	11.5%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00	19.8%	24.5%	8.9%	15.9%	11.5%
2026-10-14T21:13:58+00:00	19.8%	24.5%	8.9%	15.9%	11.5%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00	19.8%	24.5%	8.9%	15.9%	11.5%
2026-10-14T22:44:12+00:00	19.8%	24.5%	8.9%	15.9%	11.5%
2026-10-14T23:29:35+00:00	19.8%	24.5%	7.0%	15.9%	11.5%
2026-10-15T00:15:27+00:00	19.8%	24.5%	7.0%	15.9%	11.5%
2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00	19.8%	24.5%	7.0%	15.9%	11.5%
2026-10-15T01:46:22+00:00	20.4%	24.5%	7.0%	15.9%	11.5%
2026-10-15T02:31:32+00:00	20.4%	24.5%	7.0%	15.9%	11.5%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00	20.4%	24.5%	7.0%	15.9%	11.5%
2026-10-15T04:02:36+00:00	20.4%	24.5%	7.0%	15.9%	11.5%
2026-10-15T04:48:08+00:00	20.4%	24.5%	7.0%	15.9%	11.5%
2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:00	20.4%	24.5%	8.9%	15.9%	11.5%
2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:00	20.4%	24.5%	8.9%	15.9%	11.5%
2026-10-15T07:03:40+00:00	20.4%	24.5%	8.9%	15.9%	11.5%
2026-10-15T11:39:36+00:00	11.7%	24.5%	4.5%	4.9%	3.7%
2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:00	11.7%	28.3%	4.5%	4.9%	3.7%
2026-10-15T13:10:37+00:00	11.7%	28.3%	4.5%	4.9%	3.7%
2026-10-15T13:55:55+00:00	15.3%	28.3%	4.5%	4.9%	3.7%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00	15.2%	28.5%	4.5%	4.9%	3.7%
2026-10-15T15:34:40+00:00	15.2%	29.0%	4.5%	4.9%	3.7%
2026-10-15T16:20:15+00:00	15.2%	29.0%	4.5%	4.9%	3.7%
2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00	15.2%	29.0%	5.8%	4.9%	3.7%
2026-10-15T17:50:49+00:00	15.2%	29.0%	5.8%	4.9%	3.7%
2026-10-15T18:36:01+00:00	15.2%	29.0%	5.8%	4.9%	3.7%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	15.2%	29.0%	5.8%	4.9%	3.7%
2026-10-15T20:06:22+00:00	15.8%	29.0%	5.8%	8.6%	3.3%
2026-10-15T20:51:36+00:00	15.8%	29.0%	5.8%	8.6%	3.3%
2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00	15.8%	29.0%	5.8%	8.6%	3.3%
2026-10-15T22:21:55+00:00	15.8%	29.0%	5.8%	8.6%	3.3%
2026-10-15T23:07:06+00:00	15.8%	29.0%	4.5%	8.6%	3.3%
2026-10-15T23:52:18+00:00	15.8%	29.0%	4.5%	8.6%	3.3%
2026-10-16T00:37:28+00:00	15.8%	29.0%	4.5%	8.6%	3.3%
2026-10-16T01:22:51+00:00	14.7%	29.0%	4.5%	8.6%	3.3%
2026-10-16T02:08:22+00:00	14.7%	29.0%	4.5%	8.6%	3.3%
2026-10-16T02:53:35+00:00	14.7%	29.0%	4.5%	8.6%	3.3%
2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00	14.7%	29.0%	4.5%	8.6%	3.3%
2026-10-16T04:25:01+00:00	14.7%	29.0%	4.5%	8.6%	3.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	29%	63.1°F	4.3°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	15%	61.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	9%	59.4°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	4%	59.8°F	3.4°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
ICON	3%	58.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	3%	59.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 02:00	Pending
National Blend	1%	58.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261018-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Seattle runs hot-for-here: 66°F+ · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗