— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
aifs
90¢
wn2
80¢
icon
79¢
hres
77¢
nbm
75¢
eps
69¢
ndfd
53¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
54–55°F1¢
56–57°F6¢
58–59°F18¢
60–61°F30¢
62–63°F27¢
64–65°F14¢
66–67°F4¢
68–69°F0¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,459 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.516 vs climatology 8.861.
Receipts
prop id WP-KSEA-20261020-TMAX-GE57 · opened 2026-10-13T08:04:16+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape