KSEA / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≥ 57°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST78%Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

80%

79%

77%

69%

Consensus

78%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 79.4¢Risks 79.40u

EPSNO 20.6¢Risks 20.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +20.60u · EPS −20.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T04:02:36+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T08:04:16+00:00	82.3%	71.8%	73.1%	61.8%	40.4%
2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00	82.3%	71.8%	73.1%	61.8%	40.4%
2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00	82.3%	71.8%	73.1%	61.8%	40.4%
2026-10-13T10:19:59+00:00	82.3%	71.8%	73.1%	61.8%	40.4%
2026-10-13T11:05:27+00:00	82.3%	71.8%	73.1%	61.8%	40.4%
2026-10-13T11:50:43+00:00	82.3%	74.3%	75.9%	61.8%	40.4%
2026-10-13T12:35:51+00:00	82.3%	74.3%	75.9%	61.8%	40.4%
2026-10-13T13:20:57+00:00	82.3%	74.3%	75.9%	61.8%	40.4%
2026-10-13T14:06:05+00:00	76.2%	74.3%	75.9%	61.8%	40.5%
2026-10-13T14:56:06+00:00	76.2%	74.3%	75.9%	61.8%	40.5%
2026-10-13T15:41:51+00:00	76.2%	74.3%	75.9%	61.8%	40.5%
2026-10-13T16:27:05+00:00	76.2%	74.3%	75.9%	61.8%	40.5%
2026-10-13T17:12:13+00:00	76.2%	74.3%	75.3%	61.8%	40.5%
2026-10-13T17:57:20+00:00	76.2%	74.3%	75.3%	61.8%	40.5%
2026-10-13T18:42:25+00:00	76.2%	74.3%	75.3%	61.8%	40.5%
2026-10-13T19:27:30+00:00	76.2%	74.3%	75.3%	61.8%	40.5%
2026-10-13T20:12:39+00:00	70.3%	74.3%	75.3%	61.8%	74.4%
2026-10-13T20:57:45+00:00	70.3%	74.3%	75.3%	61.8%	74.4%
2026-10-13T21:43:20+00:00	70.3%	74.3%	75.3%	61.8%	74.4%
2026-10-13T22:28:26+00:00	70.3%	74.3%	75.3%	61.8%	74.4%
2026-10-13T23:13:39+00:00	70.3%	74.3%	77.7%	56.3%	74.4%
2026-10-13T23:58:47+00:00	70.3%	74.3%	77.7%	56.3%	74.4%
2026-10-14T00:43:55+00:00	70.3%	74.3%	77.7%	56.3%	74.4%
2026-10-14T01:29:14+00:00	77.3%	74.3%	77.7%	56.3%	74.4%
2026-10-14T02:14:21+00:00	77.3%	74.3%	77.7%	56.3%	74.4%
2026-10-14T03:00:06+00:00	77.3%	74.3%	77.7%	56.3%	74.4%
2026-10-14T03:45:41+00:00	77.3%	74.3%	77.7%	56.3%	74.4%
2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:00	77.3%	74.3%	77.7%	56.3%	74.4%
2026-10-14T05:15:55+00:00	77.3%	74.3%	77.7%	56.3%	74.4%
2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:00	77.3%	74.3%	77.7%	56.3%	74.4%
2026-10-14T06:46:19+00:00	77.3%	74.3%	77.7%	56.3%	74.4%
2026-10-14T07:31:29+00:00	76.9%	74.3%	77.7%	56.3%	78.2%
2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00	76.9%	74.3%	77.7%	56.3%	78.2%
2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:00	76.9%	74.3%	77.7%	56.3%	78.2%
2026-10-14T09:46:56+00:00	76.9%	74.3%	77.7%	56.3%	78.2%
2026-10-14T10:34:38+00:00	76.9%	74.3%	77.7%	53.0%	78.2%
2026-10-14T11:21:02+00:00	76.9%	69.2%	72.9%	53.0%	78.2%
2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00	76.9%	69.2%	72.9%	53.0%	78.2%
2026-10-14T12:51:23+00:00	76.9%	69.2%	72.9%	53.0%	78.2%
2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:00	80.7%	69.2%	72.9%	53.0%	78.2%
2026-10-14T14:26:52+00:00	80.8%	69.1%	72.6%	53.0%	78.2%
2026-10-14T15:12:44+00:00	80.8%	69.2%	72.6%	53.0%	78.2%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00	80.8%	69.2%	72.6%	53.0%	78.2%
2026-10-14T16:43:07+00:00	80.8%	69.2%	72.6%	53.0%	78.2%
2026-10-14T17:28:15+00:00	80.8%	69.2%	76.7%	53.0%	78.2%
2026-10-14T18:13:22+00:00	80.8%	69.2%	76.7%	53.0%	78.2%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00	80.8%	69.2%	76.7%	53.0%	78.2%
2026-10-14T19:43:41+00:00	88.2%	69.2%	76.7%	76.7%	78.6%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00	88.2%	69.2%	76.7%	76.7%	78.6%
2026-10-14T21:13:58+00:00	88.2%	69.2%	76.7%	76.7%	78.6%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00	88.2%	69.2%	76.7%	76.7%	78.6%
2026-10-14T22:44:12+00:00	88.2%	69.2%	76.7%	76.7%	78.6%
2026-10-14T23:29:35+00:00	88.2%	69.2%	80.4%	76.7%	78.6%
2026-10-15T00:15:27+00:00	88.2%	69.2%	80.4%	76.7%	78.6%
2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00	88.2%	69.2%	80.4%	76.7%	78.6%
2026-10-15T01:46:22+00:00	89.6%	69.2%	80.4%	76.7%	78.6%
2026-10-15T02:31:32+00:00	89.6%	69.2%	80.4%	76.7%	78.6%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00	89.6%	69.2%	80.4%	76.7%	78.6%
2026-10-15T04:02:36+00:00	89.6%	69.2%	80.4%	76.7%	78.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	90%	63.3°F	5.4°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	80%	60.5°F	4.7°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
ICON	79%	62.1°F	7.1°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	77%	61.3°F	6.6°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
National Blend	75%	58.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	69%	59.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	57.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 57°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261020-TMAX-GE57
Opened Oct 13 · 08:04 UTC

Original listing: Seattle high ≥ 57°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗