daily prop · Seattle, WA · West Coast & Southwest · settles Tue Oct 20

Seattle runs hot-for-here: 66°F+ · Tue Oct 20

3¢

american +3025 · decimal 31.25

on the tape

66°F is the top-decile high for this date at this station (1940–present). Hot means hot *for here*.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 66°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

rrfs		53¢
aifs		22¢
hres		18¢
eps		12¢
wn2		12¢
icon		7¢
ndfd		3¢
nbm		1¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

54–55°F1¢

56–57°F6¢

58–59°F18¢

60–61°F30¢

62–63°F27¢

64–65°F14¢

66–67°F4¢

68–69°F0¢

calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,459 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.516 vs climatology 8.861.

Receipts

prop id WP-KSEA-20261020-TMAX-GE66 · opened 2026-10-13T08:04:17+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape