KSEA / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST4%Oct 19 · 11:21 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

30%

22%

21%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 18.1¢Risks 18.15u

WN2NO 81.8¢Risks 81.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +81.85u · WN2 −81.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T11:21:16+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T08:04:17+00:00	24.9%	12.4%	14.3%	13.1%	12.5%
2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00	24.9%	12.4%	14.3%	13.1%	12.5%
2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00	24.9%	12.4%	14.3%	13.1%	12.5%
2026-10-13T10:19:59+00:00	24.9%	12.4%	14.3%	13.1%	12.5%
2026-10-13T11:05:27+00:00	24.9%	12.4%	14.3%	13.1%	12.5%
2026-10-13T11:50:43+00:00	24.9%	9.6%	13.4%	13.1%	12.5%
2026-10-13T12:35:51+00:00	24.9%	9.6%	13.4%	13.1%	12.5%
2026-10-13T13:20:57+00:00	24.9%	9.6%	13.4%	13.1%	12.5%
2026-10-13T14:06:05+00:00	18.7%	9.6%	13.5%	13.1%	12.5%
2026-10-13T14:56:06+00:00	18.7%	9.6%	13.5%	13.1%	12.5%
2026-10-14T11:21:02+00:00	16.8%	14.6%	8.8%	9.8%	31.0%
2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00	16.8%	14.6%	8.8%	9.8%	31.0%
2026-10-14T12:51:23+00:00	16.8%	14.6%	8.8%	9.8%	31.0%
2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:00	20.3%	14.6%	8.8%	9.8%	31.0%
2026-10-14T14:26:52+00:00	21.3%	14.7%	9.2%	9.8%	31.0%
2026-10-14T15:12:44+00:00	21.3%	14.6%	9.2%	9.8%	31.0%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00	21.3%	14.6%	9.2%	9.8%	31.0%
2026-10-14T16:43:07+00:00	21.3%	14.6%	9.2%	9.8%	31.0%
2026-10-14T17:28:15+00:00	21.3%	14.6%	11.5%	9.8%	31.0%
2026-10-14T18:13:22+00:00	21.3%	14.6%	11.5%	9.8%	31.0%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00	21.3%	14.6%	11.5%	9.8%	31.0%
2026-10-14T19:43:41+00:00	31.5%	14.6%	11.5%	26.2%	31.5%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00	31.5%	14.6%	11.5%	26.2%	31.5%
2026-10-14T21:13:58+00:00	31.5%	14.6%	11.5%	26.2%	31.5%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00	31.5%	14.6%	11.5%	26.2%	31.5%
2026-10-14T22:44:12+00:00	31.5%	14.6%	11.5%	26.2%	31.5%
2026-10-14T23:29:35+00:00	31.5%	14.6%	14.2%	26.2%	31.5%
2026-10-15T00:15:27+00:00	31.5%	14.6%	14.2%	26.2%	31.5%
2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00	31.5%	14.6%	14.2%	26.2%	31.5%
2026-10-15T01:46:22+00:00	34.2%	14.6%	14.2%	26.2%	31.5%
2026-10-15T02:31:32+00:00	34.2%	14.6%	14.2%	26.2%	31.5%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00	34.2%	14.6%	14.2%	26.2%	31.5%
2026-10-15T04:02:36+00:00	34.2%	14.6%	14.2%	26.2%	31.5%
2026-10-15T04:48:09+00:00	34.2%	14.6%	14.2%	26.2%	31.5%
2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:00	34.2%	14.6%	15.2%	26.2%	31.5%
2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:00	34.2%	14.6%	15.2%	26.2%	31.5%
2026-10-15T07:03:40+00:00	34.2%	14.6%	15.2%	26.2%	31.5%
2026-10-15T07:50:27+00:00	17.7%	14.6%	15.2%	27.2%	17.7%
2026-10-15T08:35:53+00:00	17.7%	14.6%	15.2%	27.2%	17.7%
2026-10-15T09:21:48+00:00	17.7%	14.6%	15.2%	27.2%	17.7%
2026-10-15T10:07:43+00:00	17.7%	14.6%	15.2%	27.2%	17.7%
2026-10-15T10:53:45+00:00	17.7%	14.6%	15.2%	27.2%	17.7%
2026-10-15T11:39:38+00:00	17.7%	14.6%	9.4%	27.2%	17.7%
2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:00	17.7%	13.8%	9.4%	27.2%	17.7%
2026-10-15T13:10:37+00:00	17.7%	13.8%	9.4%	27.2%	17.7%
2026-10-15T13:55:55+00:00	26.6%	13.8%	9.4%	27.2%	17.7%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00	26.6%	13.8%	9.4%	27.2%	18.4%
2026-10-15T15:34:40+00:00	26.6%	14.3%	9.4%	27.2%	18.4%
2026-10-15T16:20:15+00:00	26.6%	14.3%	9.4%	27.2%	18.4%
2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00	26.6%	14.3%	11.7%	27.2%	18.4%
2026-10-15T17:50:49+00:00	26.6%	14.3%	11.7%	27.2%	18.4%
2026-10-15T18:36:01+00:00	26.6%	14.3%	11.7%	27.2%	18.4%
2026-10-15T19:21:11+00:00	26.6%	14.3%	11.7%	27.2%	18.4%
2026-10-15T20:06:22+00:00	26.0%	14.3%	11.7%	13.0%	15.4%
2026-10-15T20:51:36+00:00	26.0%	14.3%	11.7%	13.0%	15.4%
2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00	26.0%	14.3%	11.7%	13.0%	15.4%
2026-10-15T22:21:55+00:00	26.0%	14.3%	11.7%	13.0%	15.4%
2026-10-15T23:07:06+00:00	26.0%	14.3%	12.1%	13.0%	15.4%
2026-10-15T23:52:18+00:00	25.9%	14.3%	12.1%	13.0%	15.4%
2026-10-16T00:37:28+00:00	25.9%	14.3%	12.1%	13.0%	15.4%
2026-10-16T01:22:51+00:00	22.8%	14.3%	12.1%	13.0%	15.4%
2026-10-16T02:08:22+00:00	22.8%	14.3%	12.1%	13.0%	15.4%
2026-10-16T02:53:35+00:00	22.8%	14.3%	12.1%	13.0%	15.4%
2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00	22.8%	14.3%	12.1%	13.0%	15.4%
2026-10-16T04:25:01+00:00	22.8%	14.3%	12.1%	13.0%	15.4%
2026-10-16T05:10:33+00:00	22.8%	14.3%	10.3%	13.0%	15.4%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00	22.8%	14.3%	10.3%	13.0%	15.4%
2026-10-16T06:41:09+00:00	22.8%	14.3%	10.3%	13.0%	15.4%
2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:00	22.8%	14.3%	10.3%	13.0%	15.4%
2026-10-16T08:11:29+00:00	22.9%	14.3%	10.3%	13.0%	18.8%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00	22.9%	14.3%	10.3%	13.0%	18.8%
2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00	22.9%	14.3%	10.3%	13.0%	18.8%
2026-10-16T10:26:59+00:00	22.9%	14.3%	10.3%	13.0%	18.8%
2026-10-16T11:12:26+00:00	22.9%	9.7%	7.0%	13.0%	18.8%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	22.9%	9.7%	7.0%	13.0%	18.8%
2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00	22.9%	9.7%	7.0%	13.0%	18.8%
2026-10-16T13:28:55+00:00	22.9%	9.7%	7.0%	13.0%	18.8%
2026-10-16T14:19:56+00:00	24.9%	9.8%	7.0%	7.2%	18.8%
2026-10-16T15:05:48+00:00	24.9%	10.2%	7.0%	7.2%	18.8%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00	24.9%	10.2%	7.0%	7.2%	18.8%
2026-10-16T16:36:13+00:00	24.9%	10.2%	7.0%	7.2%	18.8%
2026-10-16T17:21:30+00:00	24.9%	10.2%	8.1%	7.2%	18.8%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	24.9%	10.2%	8.1%	7.2%	18.8%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	24.9%	10.2%	8.1%	7.2%	18.8%
2026-10-16T19:37:15+00:00	25.6%	10.2%	8.1%	7.2%	9.7%
2026-10-16T20:22:41+00:00	25.6%	10.2%	8.1%	7.2%	9.7%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	25.6%	10.2%	8.1%	7.2%	9.7%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	25.6%	10.2%	8.1%	7.2%	9.7%
2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00	25.6%	10.2%	8.1%	11.5%	9.7%
2026-10-16T23:23:36+00:00	25.6%	10.2%	8.9%	11.5%	9.7%
2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00	25.6%	10.2%	8.9%	11.5%	9.7%
2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00	25.6%	10.2%	8.9%	11.5%	9.7%
2026-10-17T01:40:11+00:00	24.9%	10.2%	8.9%	11.5%	9.7%
2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00	24.9%	10.2%	8.9%	11.5%	9.7%
2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00	24.9%	10.2%	8.9%	11.5%	9.7%
2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00	24.9%	10.2%	8.9%	11.5%	9.7%
2026-10-17T04:42:31+00:00	24.9%	10.2%	8.9%	11.5%	9.7%
2026-10-17T07:45:03+00:00	24.2%	10.2%	8.1%	13.2%	15.1%
2026-10-17T08:30:47+00:00	24.2%	10.2%	8.1%	13.2%	15.1%
2026-10-17T09:16:44+00:00	24.2%	10.2%	8.1%	13.2%	15.1%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00	24.2%	10.2%	8.1%	13.2%	15.1%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	24.2%	10.2%	8.1%	13.2%	15.1%
2026-10-17T11:32:15+00:00	24.2%	11.1%	8.6%	13.2%	15.1%
2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00	24.2%	11.1%	8.6%	13.2%	15.1%
2026-10-17T13:02:35+00:00	24.2%	11.1%	8.6%	13.2%	15.1%
2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:00	22.7%	11.1%	8.6%	13.2%	15.1%
2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00	22.7%	11.5%	8.6%	13.2%	15.1%
2026-10-17T15:25:16+00:00	22.7%	12.5%	8.6%	13.2%	15.1%
2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00	22.7%	12.5%	8.6%	13.2%	15.1%
2026-10-17T16:55:43+00:00	22.7%	12.5%	8.6%	13.2%	15.1%
2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00	22.7%	12.5%	9.1%	13.2%	15.1%
2026-10-17T18:25:59+00:00	22.7%	12.5%	9.1%	13.2%	15.1%
2026-10-17T19:11:06+00:00	22.7%	12.5%	9.1%	13.2%	15.1%
2026-10-17T19:56:17+00:00	20.7%	12.5%	9.1%	18.0%	9.9%
2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00	20.7%	12.5%	9.1%	18.0%	9.9%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	20.7%	12.5%	9.1%	18.0%	9.9%
2026-10-17T22:11:56+00:00	20.7%	12.5%	9.1%	18.0%	9.9%
2026-10-17T22:57:06+00:00	20.7%	12.5%	9.1%	18.0%	9.9%
2026-10-17T23:42:15+00:00	20.7%	12.4%	10.6%	18.0%	9.9%
2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00	20.7%	12.4%	10.6%	18.0%	9.9%
2026-10-18T01:12:57+00:00	20.7%	12.4%	10.6%	18.0%	9.9%
2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00	22.0%	12.4%	10.6%	18.0%	9.9%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00	22.0%	12.4%	10.6%	18.0%	9.9%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	22.0%	12.4%	10.6%	18.0%	9.9%
2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00	22.0%	12.4%	11.8%	18.0%	9.9%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00	22.0%	12.4%	11.8%	18.0%	9.9%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00	22.0%	12.4%	11.8%	18.0%	9.9%
2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00	22.0%	12.4%	11.8%	18.0%	9.9%
2026-10-18T08:01:49+00:00	22.3%	12.4%	11.8%	17.7%	7.1%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00	22.3%	12.4%	11.8%	17.7%	7.1%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00	22.3%	12.4%	11.8%	17.7%	7.1%
2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00	22.3%	12.4%	11.8%	17.7%	7.1%
2026-10-18T11:03:01+00:00	22.3%	12.4%	11.8%	17.7%	7.1%
2026-10-19T11:21:16+00:00	22.3%	29.8%	6.5%	20.9%	7.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	30%	63.1°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	22%	62.5°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	21%	62.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	7%	60.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	6%	61.1°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	4%	60.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	61.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261020-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 13 · 08:04 UTC

Original listing: Seattle runs hot-for-here: 66°F+ · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗