— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
aifs
81¢
wn2
74¢
hres
72¢
eps
67¢
icon
65¢
nbm
63¢
ndfd
53¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
60–61°F2¢
62–63°F20¢
64–65°F44¢
66–67°F28¢
68–69°F5¢
calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 14,410 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.692 vs climatology 8.861.
Receipts
prop id WP-KSEA-20261021-TMAX-GE59 · opened 2026-10-15T04:48:09+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape