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KSEA / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≥ 59°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST70%Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
81%
WN2
74%
HRES
72%
EPS
67%
ICON
65%
Consensus
70%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 73.0¢Risks 36.52u
VS
ICONNO 27.0¢Risks 13.48u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +13.48u · ICON −13.48u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 77.8% · 2026-10-15T04:48:09+00:00AIFS Single: 77.8% · 2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:00AIFS Single: 77.8% · 2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:00AIFS Single: 77.8% · 2026-10-15T07:03:40+00:00AIFS Single: 76.5% · 2026-10-15T07:50:27+00:00AIFS Single: 76.5% · 2026-10-15T08:35:53+00:00AIFS Single: 76.5% · 2026-10-15T09:21:48+00:00AIFS Single: 76.5% · 2026-10-15T10:07:43+00:00AIFS Single: 76.5% · 2026-10-15T10:53:45+00:00AIFS Single: 76.5% · 2026-10-15T11:39:38+00:00AIFS Single: 76.5% · 2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:00AIFS Single: 76.5% · 2026-10-15T13:10:37+00:00AIFS Single: 81.3% · 2026-10-15T13:55:55+00:00AIFS Single: 81.3% · 2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00AIFS Single: 81.3% · 2026-10-15T15:34:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 57.6% · 2026-10-15T04:48:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 57.6% · 2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 57.6% · 2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 57.6% · 2026-10-15T07:03:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 57.6% · 2026-10-15T07:50:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 57.6% · 2026-10-15T08:35:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 57.6% · 2026-10-15T09:21:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 57.6% · 2026-10-15T10:07:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 57.6% · 2026-10-15T10:53:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 57.6% · 2026-10-15T11:39:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.8% · 2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.8% · 2026-10-15T13:10:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.8% · 2026-10-15T13:55:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.8% · 2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.6% · 2026-10-15T15:34:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 73.2% · 2026-10-15T04:48:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 71.2% · 2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 71.2% · 2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 71.2% · 2026-10-15T07:03:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 71.2% · 2026-10-15T07:50:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 71.2% · 2026-10-15T08:35:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 71.2% · 2026-10-15T09:21:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 71.2% · 2026-10-15T10:07:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 71.2% · 2026-10-15T10:53:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.0% · 2026-10-15T11:39:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.0% · 2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.0% · 2026-10-15T13:10:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.0% · 2026-10-15T13:55:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.0% · 2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.0% · 2026-10-15T15:34:40+00:00IFS HRES: 67.1% · 2026-10-15T04:48:09+00:00IFS HRES: 67.1% · 2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:00IFS HRES: 67.1% · 2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:00IFS HRES: 67.1% · 2026-10-15T07:03:40+00:00IFS HRES: 71.8% · 2026-10-15T07:50:27+00:00IFS HRES: 71.8% · 2026-10-15T08:35:53+00:00IFS HRES: 71.8% · 2026-10-15T09:21:48+00:00IFS HRES: 71.8% · 2026-10-15T10:07:43+00:00IFS HRES: 71.8% · 2026-10-15T10:53:45+00:00IFS HRES: 71.8% · 2026-10-15T11:39:38+00:00IFS HRES: 71.8% · 2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:00IFS HRES: 71.8% · 2026-10-15T13:10:37+00:00IFS HRES: 71.8% · 2026-10-15T13:55:55+00:00IFS HRES: 71.8% · 2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00IFS HRES: 71.8% · 2026-10-15T15:34:40+00:00ICON: 67.1% · 2026-10-15T04:48:09+00:00ICON: 67.1% · 2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:00ICON: 67.1% · 2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:00ICON: 67.1% · 2026-10-15T07:03:40+00:00ICON: 64.9% · 2026-10-15T07:50:27+00:00ICON: 64.9% · 2026-10-15T08:35:53+00:00ICON: 64.9% · 2026-10-15T09:21:48+00:00ICON: 64.9% · 2026-10-15T10:07:43+00:00ICON: 64.9% · 2026-10-15T10:53:45+00:00ICON: 64.9% · 2026-10-15T11:39:38+00:00ICON: 64.9% · 2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:00ICON: 64.9% · 2026-10-15T13:10:37+00:00ICON: 64.9% · 2026-10-15T13:55:55+00:00ICON: 64.8% · 2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00ICON: 64.8% · 2026-10-15T15:34:40+00:0010-15 04:4810-15 10:0710-15 15:34
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-15T15:34:40+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-15T04:48:09+00:0077.8%57.6%73.2%67.1%67.1%
2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:0077.8%57.6%71.2%67.1%67.1%
2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:0077.8%57.6%71.2%67.1%67.1%
2026-10-15T07:03:40+00:0077.8%57.6%71.2%67.1%67.1%
2026-10-15T07:50:27+00:0076.5%57.6%71.2%71.8%64.9%
2026-10-15T08:35:53+00:0076.5%57.6%71.2%71.8%64.9%
2026-10-15T09:21:48+00:0076.5%57.6%71.2%71.8%64.9%
2026-10-15T10:07:43+00:0076.5%57.6%71.2%71.8%64.9%
2026-10-15T10:53:45+00:0076.5%57.6%71.2%71.8%64.9%
2026-10-15T11:39:38+00:0076.5%57.6%74.0%71.8%64.9%
2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:0076.5%65.8%74.0%71.8%64.9%
2026-10-15T13:10:37+00:0076.5%65.8%74.0%71.8%64.9%
2026-10-15T13:55:55+00:0081.3%65.8%74.0%71.8%64.9%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:0081.3%65.8%74.0%71.8%64.8%
2026-10-15T15:34:40+00:0081.3%66.6%74.0%71.8%64.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single81%63.3°F5.4°F2026-10-15 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 274%61.5°F4.7°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
IFS HRES72%62.3°F6.6°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble67%60.6°F4.9°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
ICON65%61.2°F7.1°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
National Blend63%60.0°F4.5°F2026-10-15 06:00Pending
NWS forecast53%59.0°F5.9°F2026-10-15 03:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261021-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 15 · 04:48 UTC

Original listing: Seattle high ≥ 59°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗