daily prop · Seattle, WA · West Coast & Southwest · settles Thu Oct 22

Seattle runs hot-for-here: 64°F+ · Thu Oct 22

11¢

american +797 · decimal 8.97

on the tape

64°F is the top-decile high for this date at this station (1940–present). Hot means hot *for here*.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 64°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

eps		59¢
hres		38¢
wn2		15¢
aifs		15¢
ndfd		12¢
nbm		5¢
icon		2¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

52–53°F2¢

54–55°F8¢

56–57°F18¢

58–59°F27¢

60–61°F25¢

62–63°F14¢

64–65°F5¢

66–67°F1¢

calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,361 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.905 vs climatology 8.86.

Receipts

prop id WP-KSEA-20261022-TMAX-GE64 · opened 2026-10-15T07:50:28+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape