KSEA / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST6%Oct 19 · 11:21 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

67%

38%

16%

15%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 34.7¢Risks 34.70u

ICONNO 65.3¢Risks 65.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +65.30u · ICON −65.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T11:21:16+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T07:50:28+00:00	29.7%	36.3%	13.7%	21.1%	18.8%
2026-10-15T08:35:53+00:00	29.7%	36.3%	13.7%	21.1%	18.8%
2026-10-15T09:21:48+00:00	29.7%	36.3%	13.7%	21.1%	18.8%
2026-10-15T10:07:43+00:00	29.7%	36.3%	13.7%	21.1%	18.8%
2026-10-15T10:53:45+00:00	29.7%	36.3%	13.7%	21.1%	18.8%
2026-10-15T11:39:40+00:00	29.7%	36.3%	15.4%	21.1%	18.8%
2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:00	29.7%	40.4%	15.4%	21.1%	18.8%
2026-10-15T13:10:37+00:00	29.7%	40.4%	15.4%	21.1%	18.8%
2026-10-15T13:55:55+00:00	31.5%	40.4%	15.4%	21.1%	18.8%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00	31.8%	40.4%	15.8%	21.3%	18.8%
2026-10-15T15:34:40+00:00	31.8%	40.9%	15.8%	21.3%	18.8%
2026-10-15T16:20:16+00:00	31.8%	40.9%	15.8%	21.3%	18.8%
2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00	31.8%	40.9%	18.3%	21.3%	18.8%
2026-10-15T17:50:49+00:00	31.8%	40.9%	18.3%	21.3%	18.8%
2026-10-15T18:36:01+00:00	31.8%	40.9%	18.3%	21.3%	18.8%
2026-10-15T19:21:11+00:00	31.8%	40.9%	18.3%	21.3%	18.8%
2026-10-15T20:06:22+00:00	15.4%	40.9%	18.3%	23.6%	38.5%
2026-10-15T20:51:36+00:00	15.4%	40.9%	18.3%	23.6%	38.5%
2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00	15.4%	40.9%	18.3%	23.6%	38.5%
2026-10-15T22:21:55+00:00	15.4%	40.9%	18.3%	23.6%	38.5%
2026-10-15T23:07:06+00:00	15.4%	40.9%	16.7%	23.6%	38.5%
2026-10-15T23:52:18+00:00	15.5%	40.9%	16.7%	23.7%	38.5%
2026-10-16T00:37:28+00:00	15.5%	40.9%	16.7%	23.7%	38.5%
2026-10-16T01:22:51+00:00	19.1%	40.9%	16.7%	23.7%	38.5%
2026-10-16T02:08:22+00:00	19.1%	40.9%	16.7%	23.7%	38.5%
2026-10-16T02:53:35+00:00	19.1%	40.9%	16.7%	23.7%	38.5%
2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00	19.1%	40.9%	16.7%	23.7%	38.5%
2026-10-16T04:25:01+00:00	19.1%	40.9%	16.7%	23.7%	38.5%
2026-10-16T05:10:33+00:00	19.1%	40.9%	13.5%	23.7%	38.5%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00	19.1%	40.9%	13.5%	23.7%	38.5%
2026-10-16T06:41:09+00:00	19.1%	40.9%	13.5%	23.7%	38.5%
2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:00	19.1%	40.9%	13.5%	23.7%	38.5%
2026-10-16T08:11:29+00:00	16.7%	40.9%	13.5%	23.7%	20.7%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00	16.7%	40.9%	13.5%	23.7%	20.7%
2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00	16.7%	40.9%	13.5%	23.7%	20.7%
2026-10-16T10:26:59+00:00	16.7%	40.9%	13.5%	23.7%	20.7%
2026-10-16T11:12:26+00:00	16.7%	32.8%	13.3%	23.7%	20.7%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	16.7%	32.8%	13.3%	23.7%	20.7%
2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00	16.7%	32.8%	13.3%	23.7%	20.7%
2026-10-16T13:28:55+00:00	16.7%	32.8%	13.3%	23.7%	20.7%
2026-10-16T14:19:56+00:00	16.8%	32.8%	13.3%	14.8%	21.2%
2026-10-16T15:05:48+00:00	16.8%	33.5%	13.3%	14.8%	21.2%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00	16.8%	33.5%	13.3%	14.8%	21.2%
2026-10-16T16:36:13+00:00	16.8%	33.5%	13.3%	14.8%	21.2%
2026-10-16T17:21:30+00:00	16.8%	33.5%	13.3%	14.8%	21.2%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	16.8%	33.5%	13.3%	14.8%	21.2%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	16.8%	33.5%	13.3%	14.8%	21.2%
2026-10-16T19:37:16+00:00	15.5%	33.5%	13.3%	14.8%	27.8%
2026-10-16T20:22:41+00:00	15.5%	33.5%	13.3%	14.8%	27.8%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	15.5%	33.5%	13.3%	14.8%	27.8%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	15.5%	33.5%	13.3%	14.8%	27.8%
2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00	15.5%	33.5%	13.3%	22.0%	27.8%
2026-10-16T23:23:36+00:00	15.5%	33.5%	11.1%	22.0%	27.8%
2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00	15.5%	33.5%	11.1%	22.0%	27.8%
2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00	15.5%	33.5%	11.1%	22.0%	27.8%
2026-10-17T01:40:11+00:00	18.3%	33.5%	11.1%	22.0%	27.8%
2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00	18.3%	33.5%	11.1%	22.0%	27.8%
2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00	18.3%	33.5%	11.1%	22.0%	27.8%
2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00	18.3%	33.5%	11.1%	22.0%	27.8%
2026-10-17T04:42:31+00:00	18.3%	33.5%	11.1%	22.0%	27.8%
2026-10-17T05:28:29+00:00	18.3%	33.5%	13.7%	22.0%	27.8%
2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00	18.3%	33.5%	13.7%	22.0%	27.8%
2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00	18.3%	33.5%	13.7%	22.0%	27.8%
2026-10-17T07:45:03+00:00	25.3%	33.5%	13.7%	33.3%	8.4%
2026-10-17T08:30:47+00:00	25.3%	33.5%	13.7%	33.3%	8.4%
2026-10-17T09:16:44+00:00	25.3%	33.5%	13.7%	33.3%	8.4%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00	25.3%	33.5%	13.7%	33.3%	8.4%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	25.3%	33.5%	13.7%	33.3%	8.4%
2026-10-17T11:32:15+00:00	25.3%	49.2%	19.1%	33.3%	8.4%
2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00	25.3%	49.2%	19.1%	33.3%	8.4%
2026-10-17T13:02:35+00:00	25.3%	49.2%	19.1%	33.3%	8.4%
2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:00	16.2%	49.2%	19.1%	33.3%	8.4%
2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00	16.1%	49.2%	19.1%	33.3%	8.8%
2026-10-17T15:25:17+00:00	16.1%	51.7%	19.1%	33.3%	8.8%
2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00	16.1%	51.7%	19.1%	33.3%	8.8%
2026-10-17T16:55:43+00:00	16.1%	51.7%	19.1%	33.3%	8.8%
2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00	16.1%	51.7%	13.2%	33.3%	8.8%
2026-10-17T18:25:59+00:00	16.1%	51.7%	13.2%	33.3%	8.8%
2026-10-17T19:11:06+00:00	16.1%	51.7%	13.2%	33.3%	8.8%
2026-10-17T19:56:17+00:00	16.1%	51.7%	13.2%	5.4%	48.0%
2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00	16.1%	51.7%	13.2%	5.4%	48.0%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	16.1%	51.7%	13.2%	5.4%	48.0%
2026-10-17T22:11:56+00:00	16.1%	51.7%	13.2%	5.4%	48.0%
2026-10-17T22:57:06+00:00	16.1%	51.7%	13.2%	5.4%	48.0%
2026-10-17T23:42:15+00:00	16.1%	51.7%	11.7%	5.4%	48.0%
2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00	16.1%	51.7%	11.7%	5.4%	48.0%
2026-10-18T01:12:57+00:00	16.1%	51.7%	11.7%	5.4%	48.0%
2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00	14.2%	51.7%	11.7%	5.4%	48.0%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00	14.2%	51.7%	11.7%	5.4%	48.0%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	14.2%	51.7%	11.7%	5.4%	48.0%
2026-10-18T04:14:46+00:00	14.2%	51.7%	11.7%	5.4%	48.0%
2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00	14.2%	51.7%	13.2%	5.4%	48.0%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00	14.2%	51.7%	13.2%	5.4%	48.0%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00	14.2%	51.7%	13.2%	5.4%	48.0%
2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00	14.2%	51.7%	13.2%	5.4%	48.0%
2026-10-18T08:01:49+00:00	15.8%	51.7%	13.2%	18.4%	28.3%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00	15.8%	51.7%	13.2%	18.4%	28.3%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00	15.8%	51.7%	13.2%	18.4%	28.3%
2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00	15.8%	51.7%	13.2%	18.4%	28.3%
2026-10-18T11:03:01+00:00	15.8%	51.7%	13.2%	18.4%	28.3%
2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00	15.8%	62.7%	12.4%	18.4%	28.3%
2026-10-18T12:33:55+00:00	15.8%	62.7%	12.4%	18.4%	28.3%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	15.8%	62.7%	12.4%	18.4%	28.3%
2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:00	18.6%	62.7%	12.4%	18.4%	28.3%
2026-10-18T14:56:09+00:00	18.6%	62.7%	12.4%	18.4%	28.3%
2026-10-18T15:41:39+00:00	18.6%	59.4%	12.4%	18.4%	28.3%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	18.6%	59.4%	12.4%	18.4%	28.3%
2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:00	18.6%	59.4%	11.9%	18.4%	28.3%
2026-10-18T17:57:34+00:00	18.6%	59.4%	11.9%	18.4%	28.3%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	18.6%	59.4%	11.9%	18.4%	28.3%
2026-10-18T19:28:00+00:00	18.6%	59.4%	11.9%	18.4%	28.3%
2026-10-18T20:13:10+00:00	12.9%	59.4%	11.9%	12.7%	27.6%
2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00	12.9%	59.4%	11.9%	12.7%	27.6%
2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00	12.9%	59.4%	11.9%	12.7%	27.6%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	12.9%	59.4%	11.9%	12.7%	27.6%
2026-10-18T23:13:44+00:00	12.9%	59.4%	10.9%	12.7%	27.6%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	12.9%	59.4%	10.9%	12.7%	27.6%
2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00	12.9%	59.4%	10.9%	12.7%	27.6%
2026-10-19T01:29:38+00:00	14.8%	59.4%	10.9%	12.7%	27.6%
2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:00	14.8%	59.4%	10.9%	12.7%	27.6%
2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00	14.8%	59.4%	10.9%	12.7%	27.6%
2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00	14.8%	59.4%	10.9%	12.7%	27.6%
2026-10-19T04:31:28+00:00	14.8%	59.4%	10.9%	12.7%	27.6%
2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00	14.8%	59.4%	15.4%	12.7%	27.6%
2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:00	14.8%	59.4%	15.4%	12.7%	27.6%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	14.8%	59.4%	15.4%	12.7%	27.6%
2026-10-19T07:33:45+00:00	15.1%	59.4%	15.4%	37.7%	2.5%
2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:00	15.1%	59.4%	15.4%	37.7%	2.5%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	15.1%	59.4%	15.4%	37.7%	2.5%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	15.1%	59.4%	15.4%	37.7%	2.5%
2026-10-19T10:35:25+00:00	15.1%	59.4%	15.4%	37.7%	2.5%
2026-10-19T11:21:16+00:00	15.1%	66.9%	15.7%	37.7%	2.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	67%	65.2°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	38%	62.1°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	16%	60.1°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	15%	59.1°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	12%	59.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
ICON	2%	55.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	57.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261022-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 15 · 07:50 UTC

Original listing: Seattle runs hot-for-here: 64°F+ · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗