— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
20¢
aifs
19¢
ndfd
16¢
hres
14¢
wn2
12¢
icon
11¢
nbm
0¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
50–51°F2¢
52–53°F6¢
54–55°F15¢
56–57°F24¢
58–59°F24¢
60–61°F17¢
62–63°F8¢
64–65°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,312 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.165 vs climatology 8.861.
Receipts
prop id WP-KSEA-20261023-TMAX-GE64 · opened 2026-10-16T14:19:56+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape