KSEA / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Oct 19 · 11:21 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

24%

19%

14%

11%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 16.4¢Risks 8.20u

WN2NO 83.6¢Risks 41.80u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +41.80u · WN2 −41.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T11:21:16+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T14:19:56+00:00	15.2%	21.5%	15.4%	19.7%	18.8%
2026-10-16T15:05:48+00:00	15.2%	22.1%	15.4%	19.7%	18.8%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00	15.2%	22.1%	15.4%	19.7%	18.8%
2026-10-16T16:36:13+00:00	15.2%	22.1%	15.4%	19.7%	18.8%
2026-10-16T17:21:30+00:00	15.2%	22.1%	19.4%	19.7%	18.8%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	15.2%	22.1%	19.4%	19.7%	18.8%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	15.2%	22.1%	19.4%	19.7%	18.8%
2026-10-16T19:37:16+00:00	20.7%	22.1%	19.4%	19.7%	40.1%
2026-10-16T20:22:41+00:00	20.7%	22.1%	19.4%	19.7%	40.1%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	20.7%	22.1%	19.4%	19.7%	40.1%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	20.7%	22.1%	19.4%	19.7%	40.1%
2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00	20.7%	22.1%	19.4%	17.2%	40.1%
2026-10-16T23:23:36+00:00	20.7%	22.1%	15.9%	17.3%	40.1%
2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00	20.7%	22.1%	15.9%	17.3%	40.1%
2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00	20.7%	22.1%	15.9%	17.3%	40.1%
2026-10-17T01:40:11+00:00	18.3%	22.1%	15.9%	17.3%	40.1%
2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00	18.3%	22.1%	15.9%	17.3%	40.1%
2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00	18.3%	22.1%	15.9%	17.3%	40.1%
2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00	18.3%	22.1%	15.9%	17.3%	40.1%
2026-10-17T04:42:32+00:00	18.3%	22.1%	15.9%	17.3%	40.1%
2026-10-17T05:28:29+00:00	18.3%	22.1%	15.4%	17.3%	40.1%
2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00	18.3%	22.1%	15.4%	17.3%	40.1%
2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00	18.3%	22.1%	15.4%	17.3%	40.1%
2026-10-17T07:45:03+00:00	21.9%	22.1%	15.4%	15.9%	29.2%
2026-10-17T08:30:47+00:00	21.9%	22.1%	15.4%	15.9%	29.2%
2026-10-17T09:16:44+00:00	21.9%	22.1%	15.4%	15.9%	29.2%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00	21.9%	22.1%	15.4%	15.9%	29.2%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	21.9%	22.1%	15.4%	15.9%	29.2%
2026-10-17T11:32:15+00:00	21.9%	34.0%	11.9%	15.9%	29.2%
2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00	21.9%	34.0%	11.9%	15.9%	29.2%
2026-10-17T13:02:35+00:00	21.9%	34.0%	11.9%	15.9%	29.2%
2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:00	18.7%	34.0%	11.9%	16.2%	29.2%
2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00	18.7%	34.1%	12.0%	15.9%	29.3%
2026-10-17T15:25:17+00:00	18.7%	35.3%	12.0%	15.9%	29.3%
2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00	18.7%	35.3%	12.0%	15.9%	29.3%
2026-10-17T16:55:43+00:00	18.7%	35.3%	12.0%	15.9%	29.3%
2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00	18.7%	35.3%	13.8%	15.9%	29.3%
2026-10-17T18:25:59+00:00	18.7%	35.3%	13.8%	15.9%	29.3%
2026-10-17T19:11:06+00:00	18.7%	35.3%	13.8%	15.9%	29.3%
2026-10-17T19:56:17+00:00	21.9%	35.3%	13.8%	14.1%	30.8%
2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00	21.9%	35.3%	13.8%	14.1%	30.8%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	21.9%	35.3%	13.8%	14.1%	30.8%
2026-10-17T22:11:56+00:00	21.9%	35.3%	13.8%	14.1%	30.8%
2026-10-17T22:57:06+00:00	21.9%	35.3%	13.8%	14.1%	30.8%
2026-10-17T23:42:15+00:00	21.9%	35.3%	8.9%	14.1%	30.8%
2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00	21.9%	35.3%	8.9%	14.1%	30.8%
2026-10-18T01:12:57+00:00	21.9%	35.3%	8.9%	14.1%	30.8%
2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00	21.3%	35.3%	8.9%	14.1%	30.8%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00	21.3%	35.3%	8.9%	14.1%	30.8%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	21.3%	35.3%	8.9%	14.1%	30.8%
2026-10-18T04:14:46+00:00	21.3%	35.3%	8.9%	14.1%	30.8%
2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00	21.3%	35.3%	11.2%	14.1%	30.8%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00	21.3%	35.3%	11.2%	14.1%	30.8%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00	21.3%	35.3%	11.2%	14.1%	30.8%
2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00	21.3%	35.3%	11.2%	14.1%	30.8%
2026-10-18T08:01:49+00:00	19.3%	35.3%	11.2%	13.5%	22.1%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00	19.3%	35.3%	11.2%	13.5%	22.1%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00	19.3%	35.3%	11.2%	13.5%	22.1%
2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00	19.3%	35.3%	11.2%	13.5%	22.1%
2026-10-18T11:03:01+00:00	19.3%	35.3%	11.2%	13.5%	22.1%
2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00	19.3%	20.1%	10.3%	13.5%	22.1%
2026-10-18T12:33:55+00:00	19.3%	20.1%	10.3%	13.5%	22.1%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	19.3%	20.1%	10.3%	13.5%	22.1%
2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:00	18.7%	20.4%	10.3%	13.5%	22.1%
2026-10-18T14:56:09+00:00	18.7%	20.4%	10.3%	13.5%	22.1%
2026-10-18T15:41:40+00:00	18.7%	19.7%	10.3%	13.5%	22.1%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	18.7%	19.7%	10.3%	13.5%	22.1%
2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:00	18.7%	19.7%	10.3%	13.5%	22.1%
2026-10-18T17:57:34+00:00	18.7%	19.7%	10.3%	13.5%	22.1%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	18.7%	19.7%	10.3%	13.5%	22.1%
2026-10-18T19:28:00+00:00	18.7%	19.7%	10.3%	13.5%	22.1%
2026-10-18T20:13:10+00:00	19.8%	19.7%	10.3%	12.7%	33.0%
2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00	19.8%	19.7%	10.3%	12.7%	33.0%
2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00	19.8%	19.7%	10.3%	12.7%	33.0%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	19.8%	19.7%	10.3%	12.7%	33.0%
2026-10-18T23:13:44+00:00	19.8%	19.7%	12.1%	12.7%	33.0%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	19.8%	19.7%	12.1%	12.7%	33.0%
2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00	19.8%	19.7%	12.1%	12.7%	33.0%
2026-10-19T01:29:38+00:00	20.4%	19.7%	12.1%	12.7%	33.0%
2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:00	20.4%	19.7%	12.1%	12.7%	33.0%
2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00	20.4%	19.7%	12.1%	12.7%	33.0%
2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00	20.4%	19.7%	12.1%	12.7%	33.0%
2026-10-19T04:31:28+00:00	20.4%	19.7%	12.1%	12.7%	33.0%
2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00	20.4%	19.7%	11.7%	12.7%	33.0%
2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:00	20.4%	19.7%	11.7%	12.7%	33.0%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	20.4%	19.7%	11.7%	12.7%	33.0%
2026-10-19T07:33:45+00:00	18.6%	19.7%	11.7%	13.6%	10.6%
2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:00	18.6%	19.7%	11.7%	13.6%	10.6%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	18.6%	19.7%	11.7%	13.6%	10.6%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	18.6%	19.7%	11.7%	13.6%	10.6%
2026-10-19T10:35:25+00:00	18.6%	19.7%	11.7%	13.6%	10.6%
2026-10-19T11:21:16+00:00	18.6%	23.8%	9.0%	13.6%	10.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	24%	60.4°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	19%	59.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	16%	59.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	14%	58.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	11%	57.4°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	9%	58.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	56.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261023-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC

Original listing: Seattle runs hot-for-here: 64°F+ · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗