— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
rrfs
82¢
hres
77¢
icon
59¢
ndfd
56¢
nbm
56¢
eps
55¢
wn2
49¢
aifs
33¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
60–61°F1¢
62–63°F4¢
64–65°F13¢
66–67°F24¢
68–69°F28¢
70–71°F19¢
72–73°F8¢
74–75°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,511 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.514 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KSFO-20261021-TMAX-GE68 · opened 2026-10-14T10:34:47+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape