KSFO / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST56%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

77%

59%

55%

49%

33%

Consensus

56%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 54.9¢Risks 54.95u

AIFSNO 45.1¢Risks 45.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +45.05u · AIFS −45.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:34:47+00:00	65.2%	43.2%	41.9%	37.0%	46.0%
2026-10-15T04:02:41+00:00	27.3%	58.3%	43.7%	85.8%	84.3%
2026-10-15T04:48:11+00:00	27.3%	58.3%	43.7%	85.8%	84.3%
2026-10-15T05:33:24+00:00	27.3%	58.3%	37.5%	85.8%	84.3%
2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:00	27.3%	58.3%	37.5%	85.8%	84.3%
2026-10-15T07:03:40+00:00	27.3%	58.3%	37.5%	85.8%	84.3%
2026-10-15T07:50:33+00:00	49.3%	58.3%	37.5%	29.2%	52.8%
2026-10-15T08:35:53+00:00	49.3%	58.3%	37.5%	29.2%	52.8%
2026-10-15T09:21:48+00:00	49.3%	58.3%	37.5%	29.2%	52.8%
2026-10-15T10:07:43+00:00	49.3%	58.3%	37.5%	29.2%	52.8%
2026-10-15T10:53:48+00:00	49.3%	58.3%	42.4%	29.2%	52.8%
2026-10-15T11:39:41+00:00	49.3%	58.3%	42.4%	29.2%	52.8%
2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:00	49.3%	49.4%	42.4%	29.2%	52.8%
2026-10-15T13:10:39+00:00	49.3%	49.4%	42.4%	29.2%	52.8%
2026-10-15T13:55:55+00:00	36.2%	49.5%	42.4%	29.3%	52.8%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00	36.2%	49.5%	42.4%	29.3%	52.8%
2026-10-15T15:34:42+00:00	36.2%	50.6%	42.4%	29.3%	52.8%
2026-10-15T16:20:17+00:00	36.2%	50.6%	42.4%	29.3%	52.8%
2026-10-15T17:05:26+00:00	36.2%	50.6%	41.5%	29.3%	52.8%
2026-10-15T17:50:49+00:00	36.2%	50.6%	41.5%	29.3%	52.8%
2026-10-15T18:36:03+00:00	36.2%	50.6%	41.5%	29.3%	52.8%
2026-10-15T19:21:11+00:00	36.2%	50.6%	41.5%	29.3%	52.8%
2026-10-15T20:06:22+00:00	28.3%	50.6%	41.5%	30.3%	82.4%
2026-10-15T20:51:37+00:00	28.3%	50.6%	41.5%	30.3%	82.4%
2026-10-15T21:36:46+00:00	28.3%	50.6%	41.5%	30.3%	82.4%
2026-10-15T22:21:55+00:00	28.3%	50.6%	41.5%	30.3%	82.4%
2026-10-15T23:07:06+00:00	28.3%	50.6%	41.5%	30.3%	82.4%
2026-10-15T23:52:18+00:00	28.3%	50.6%	41.5%	30.3%	82.3%
2026-10-16T00:37:28+00:00	28.3%	50.6%	41.5%	30.3%	82.3%
2026-10-16T01:22:51+00:00	38.3%	50.6%	41.5%	30.3%	82.3%
2026-10-16T02:08:22+00:00	38.3%	50.6%	41.5%	30.3%	82.3%
2026-10-16T02:53:36+00:00	38.3%	50.6%	41.5%	30.3%	82.3%
2026-10-16T03:38:45+00:00	38.3%	50.6%	41.5%	30.3%	82.3%
2026-10-17T04:42:36+00:00	36.6%	63.1%	48.1%	56.9%	94.3%
2026-10-17T05:28:29+00:00	36.6%	63.1%	51.0%	56.9%	94.3%
2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00	36.6%	63.1%	51.0%	56.9%	94.3%
2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00	36.6%	63.1%	51.0%	56.9%	94.3%
2026-10-17T07:45:07+00:00	33.9%	63.1%	51.0%	58.7%	93.6%
2026-10-17T08:30:59+00:00	33.9%	63.1%	51.0%	58.7%	93.6%
2026-10-17T09:16:45+00:00	33.9%	63.1%	51.0%	58.7%	93.6%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00	33.9%	63.1%	51.0%	58.7%	93.6%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	33.9%	63.1%	51.0%	58.7%	93.6%
2026-10-17T11:32:17+00:00	33.9%	57.0%	60.6%	58.7%	93.6%
2026-10-17T12:17:30+00:00	33.9%	57.0%	60.6%	58.7%	93.6%
2026-10-17T13:02:38+00:00	33.9%	57.0%	60.6%	58.7%	93.6%
2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:00	33.1%	57.0%	60.6%	58.7%	93.6%
2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:00	33.2%	57.0%	60.6%	58.7%	93.5%
2026-10-17T15:25:19+00:00	33.2%	57.6%	60.6%	58.7%	93.5%
2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00	33.2%	57.6%	60.6%	58.7%	93.5%
2026-10-17T16:55:43+00:00	33.2%	57.6%	50.0%	58.7%	93.5%
2026-10-17T17:40:52+00:00	33.2%	57.6%	50.0%	58.7%	93.5%
2026-10-17T18:25:59+00:00	33.2%	57.6%	50.0%	58.7%	93.5%
2026-10-17T19:11:06+00:00	33.2%	57.6%	50.0%	58.7%	93.5%
2026-10-17T19:56:17+00:00	32.4%	57.6%	50.0%	54.8%	90.2%
2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00	32.4%	57.6%	50.0%	54.8%	90.2%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	32.4%	57.6%	50.0%	54.8%	90.2%
2026-10-17T22:11:56+00:00	32.4%	57.6%	50.0%	54.8%	90.2%
2026-10-17T22:57:06+00:00	32.4%	57.6%	39.4%	54.8%	90.2%
2026-10-17T23:42:15+00:00	32.4%	57.6%	39.4%	54.8%	90.2%
2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00	32.4%	57.6%	39.4%	54.8%	90.2%
2026-10-18T01:12:57+00:00	32.4%	57.6%	39.4%	54.8%	90.2%
2026-10-18T01:58:16+00:00	29.3%	57.6%	39.4%	54.8%	90.2%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00	29.3%	57.6%	39.4%	54.8%	90.2%
2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00	29.3%	57.6%	39.4%	54.8%	90.2%
2026-10-18T04:14:51+00:00	29.3%	57.6%	39.4%	54.8%	90.2%
2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00	29.3%	57.6%	44.7%	54.8%	90.2%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00	29.3%	57.6%	44.7%	54.8%	90.2%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00	29.3%	57.6%	44.7%	54.8%	90.2%
2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00	29.3%	57.6%	44.7%	54.8%	90.2%
2026-10-18T08:01:52+00:00	26.4%	57.6%	44.7%	50.9%	79.0%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00	26.4%	57.6%	44.7%	50.9%	79.0%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00	26.4%	57.6%	44.7%	50.9%	79.0%
2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00	26.4%	57.6%	44.7%	50.9%	79.0%
2026-10-18T11:03:02+00:00	26.4%	49.0%	39.5%	50.9%	79.0%
2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00	26.4%	49.0%	39.5%	50.9%	79.0%
2026-10-18T12:33:57+00:00	26.4%	49.0%	39.5%	50.9%	79.0%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	26.4%	49.0%	39.5%	50.9%	79.0%
2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:00	27.9%	49.0%	39.5%	50.9%	78.9%
2026-10-18T14:56:11+00:00	27.9%	49.0%	39.5%	50.9%	78.9%
2026-10-18T15:41:40+00:00	27.9%	49.0%	39.5%	50.9%	78.9%
2026-10-18T16:27:01+00:00	27.9%	49.0%	39.5%	50.9%	78.9%
2026-10-18T17:12:11+00:00	27.9%	49.0%	44.1%	50.9%	78.9%
2026-10-18T17:57:35+00:00	27.9%	49.0%	44.1%	50.9%	78.9%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	27.9%	49.0%	44.1%	50.9%	78.9%
2026-10-18T19:28:00+00:00	26.4%	49.0%	44.1%	32.7%	75.1%
2026-10-18T20:13:10+00:00	26.4%	49.0%	44.1%	32.7%	75.1%
2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00	26.4%	49.0%	44.1%	32.7%	75.1%
2026-10-18T21:43:28+00:00	26.4%	49.0%	44.1%	32.7%	75.1%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	26.4%	49.0%	44.1%	32.7%	75.1%
2026-10-18T23:13:44+00:00	26.4%	49.0%	39.5%	32.7%	75.1%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	26.4%	49.0%	39.5%	32.7%	75.1%
2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00	26.4%	49.0%	39.5%	32.7%	75.1%
2026-10-19T01:29:38+00:00	25.6%	49.0%	39.5%	32.7%	75.1%
2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:00	25.6%	49.0%	39.5%	32.7%	75.1%
2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00	25.6%	49.0%	39.5%	32.7%	75.1%
2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00	25.6%	49.0%	39.5%	32.7%	75.1%
2026-10-19T04:31:32+00:00	25.6%	49.0%	39.5%	32.7%	75.1%
2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00	25.6%	49.0%	44.1%	32.7%	75.1%
2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:00	25.6%	49.0%	44.1%	32.7%	75.1%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	25.6%	49.0%	44.1%	32.7%	75.1%
2026-10-19T07:33:48+00:00	32.0%	49.0%	44.1%	52.9%	54.5%
2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:00	32.0%	49.0%	44.1%	52.9%	54.5%
2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00	32.0%	49.0%	44.1%	52.9%	54.5%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	32.0%	49.0%	44.1%	52.9%	54.5%
2026-10-19T10:35:26+00:00	32.0%	49.0%	44.1%	52.9%	54.5%
2026-10-19T11:21:19+00:00	32.0%	48.0%	50.0%	52.9%	54.5%
2026-10-19T12:06:40+00:00	32.0%	48.0%	50.0%	52.9%	54.5%
2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00	32.0%	48.0%	50.0%	52.9%	54.5%
2026-10-19T13:37:04+00:00	31.1%	48.0%	50.0%	52.9%	54.5%
2026-10-19T14:28:06+00:00	31.0%	48.0%	50.0%	52.9%	54.5%
2026-10-19T15:13:55+00:00	31.0%	48.0%	50.0%	52.9%	54.5%
2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00	31.0%	48.0%	50.0%	52.9%	54.5%
2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00	31.0%	48.0%	50.0%	52.9%	54.5%
2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00	31.0%	48.0%	46.1%	52.9%	54.5%
2026-10-19T18:14:42+00:00	31.0%	48.0%	46.1%	52.9%	54.5%
2026-10-19T19:00:20+00:00	31.0%	48.0%	46.1%	52.9%	54.5%
2026-10-19T19:45:32+00:00	31.0%	48.0%	46.1%	62.4%	70.3%
2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00	31.0%	48.0%	46.1%	62.4%	70.3%
2026-10-19T21:15:56+00:00	31.0%	48.0%	46.1%	62.4%	70.3%
2026-10-19T22:01:05+00:00	31.0%	48.0%	46.1%	62.4%	70.3%
2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00	31.0%	48.0%	46.1%	62.4%	70.3%
2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00	31.0%	48.0%	46.1%	62.4%	70.3%
2026-10-20T00:17:10+00:00	31.0%	48.0%	46.1%	62.4%	70.3%
2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00	31.0%	48.0%	46.1%	62.4%	70.3%
2026-10-20T01:47:51+00:00	31.0%	48.0%	46.1%	62.4%	70.3%
2026-10-20T02:33:00+00:00	31.0%	48.0%	46.1%	62.4%	70.3%
2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00	31.0%	48.0%	46.1%	62.4%	70.3%
2026-10-20T04:05:42+00:00	31.0%	48.0%	46.1%	62.4%	70.3%
2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00	31.0%	48.0%	46.1%	62.4%	70.3%
2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:00	31.0%	48.0%	44.9%	62.4%	70.3%
2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00	31.0%	48.0%	44.9%	62.4%	70.3%
2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00	31.0%	48.0%	44.9%	62.4%	70.3%
2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:00	33.3%	48.0%	44.9%	62.4%	58.9%
2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00	33.3%	48.0%	44.9%	62.4%	58.9%
2026-10-20T09:22:37+00:00	33.3%	48.0%	44.9%	62.4%	58.9%
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00	33.3%	48.0%	44.9%	62.4%	58.9%
2026-10-20T10:54:18+00:00	33.3%	55.2%	48.6%	76.7%	58.9%
2026-10-20T11:39:48+00:00	33.3%	55.2%	48.6%	76.7%	58.9%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00	33.3%	55.2%	48.6%	76.7%	58.9%
2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00	33.3%	55.2%	48.6%	76.7%	58.9%
2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00	33.2%	55.2%	48.6%	76.7%	59.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	77%	70.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	59%	68.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	68.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	55%	68.0°F	3.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	49%	67.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	33%	65.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261021-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 14 · 10:34 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco high ≥ 68°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗