daily prop · San Francisco, CA · West Coast & Southwest · settles Wed Oct 21

San Francisco stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 62°F · Wed Oct 21

2¢

american +3949 · decimal 40.49

on the tape

62°F is the bottom-decile high for this date at this station (1940–present).

Canonical settlement condition: High ≤ 62°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

hrrr		59¢
aifs		20¢
eps		8¢
icon		5¢
nbm		5¢
wn2		5¢
ndfd		4¢
hres		2¢
rrfs		1¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

60–61°F1¢

62–63°F4¢

64–65°F13¢

66–67°F24¢

68–69°F28¢

70–71°F19¢

72–73°F8¢

74–75°F2¢

calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,511 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.514 vs climatology 8.854.

Receipts

prop id WP-KSFO-20261021-TMAX-LE62 · opened 2026-10-17T07:45:07+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape