KSFO / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≤ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

20%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 11.0¢Risks 5.50u

HRESNO 89.0¢Risks 44.50u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +44.50u · HRES −44.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T07:45:07+00:00	24.9%	7.4%	10.7%	11.1%	0.5%
2026-10-17T08:30:59+00:00	24.9%	7.4%	10.7%	11.1%	0.5%
2026-10-17T09:16:45+00:00	24.9%	7.4%	10.7%	11.1%	0.5%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00	24.9%	7.4%	10.7%	11.1%	0.5%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	24.9%	7.4%	10.7%	11.1%	0.5%
2026-10-17T11:32:17+00:00	24.9%	14.3%	5.3%	11.1%	0.5%
2026-10-17T12:17:30+00:00	24.9%	14.3%	5.3%	11.1%	0.5%
2026-10-17T13:02:38+00:00	24.9%	14.3%	5.3%	11.1%	0.5%
2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:00	25.6%	14.3%	5.3%	11.1%	0.5%
2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:00	25.7%	14.6%	5.4%	11.1%	0.6%
2026-10-17T15:25:20+00:00	25.7%	14.4%	5.4%	11.1%	0.6%
2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00	25.7%	14.4%	5.4%	11.1%	0.6%
2026-10-17T16:55:43+00:00	25.7%	14.4%	9.0%	11.1%	0.6%
2026-10-17T17:40:52+00:00	25.7%	14.4%	9.0%	11.1%	0.6%
2026-10-17T18:25:59+00:00	25.7%	14.4%	9.0%	11.1%	0.6%
2026-10-17T19:11:06+00:00	25.7%	14.4%	9.0%	11.1%	0.6%
2026-10-17T19:56:17+00:00	26.4%	14.4%	9.0%	13.1%	1.0%
2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00	26.4%	14.4%	9.0%	13.1%	1.0%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	26.4%	14.4%	9.0%	13.1%	1.0%
2026-10-17T22:11:56+00:00	26.4%	14.4%	9.0%	13.1%	1.0%
2026-10-17T22:57:06+00:00	26.4%	14.4%	14.2%	13.1%	1.0%
2026-10-17T23:42:15+00:00	26.4%	14.4%	14.2%	13.1%	1.0%
2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00	26.4%	14.4%	14.2%	13.1%	1.0%
2026-10-18T01:12:57+00:00	26.4%	14.4%	14.2%	13.1%	1.0%
2026-10-18T01:58:16+00:00	29.3%	14.4%	14.2%	13.1%	1.0%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00	29.3%	14.4%	14.2%	13.1%	1.0%
2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00	29.3%	14.4%	14.2%	13.1%	1.0%
2026-10-18T04:14:51+00:00	29.3%	14.4%	14.2%	13.1%	1.0%
2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00	29.3%	14.4%	11.4%	13.1%	1.0%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00	29.3%	14.4%	11.4%	13.1%	1.0%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00	29.3%	14.4%	11.4%	13.1%	1.0%
2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00	29.3%	14.4%	11.4%	13.1%	1.0%
2026-10-18T08:01:52+00:00	29.6%	14.4%	11.4%	12.7%	1.9%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00	29.6%	14.4%	11.4%	12.7%	1.9%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00	29.6%	14.4%	11.4%	12.7%	1.9%
2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00	29.6%	14.4%	11.4%	12.7%	1.9%
2026-10-18T11:03:02+00:00	29.6%	10.8%	11.2%	12.7%	1.9%
2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00	29.6%	10.8%	11.2%	12.7%	1.9%
2026-10-18T12:33:57+00:00	29.6%	10.8%	11.2%	12.7%	1.9%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	29.6%	10.8%	11.2%	12.7%	1.9%
2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:00	27.9%	11.6%	11.2%	12.6%	2.0%
2026-10-18T14:56:11+00:00	27.9%	11.6%	11.2%	12.6%	2.0%
2026-10-18T15:41:40+00:00	27.9%	11.0%	11.2%	12.6%	2.0%
2026-10-18T16:27:01+00:00	27.9%	11.0%	11.2%	12.6%	2.0%
2026-10-18T17:12:11+00:00	27.9%	11.0%	9.1%	12.6%	2.0%
2026-10-18T17:57:35+00:00	27.9%	11.0%	9.1%	12.6%	2.0%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	27.9%	11.0%	9.1%	12.6%	2.0%
2026-10-18T19:28:00+00:00	29.5%	11.0%	9.1%	25.1%	2.7%
2026-10-18T20:13:10+00:00	29.5%	11.0%	9.1%	25.1%	2.7%
2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00	29.5%	11.0%	9.1%	25.1%	2.7%
2026-10-18T21:43:28+00:00	29.5%	11.0%	9.1%	25.1%	2.7%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	29.5%	11.0%	9.1%	25.1%	2.7%
2026-10-18T23:13:45+00:00	29.5%	11.0%	11.2%	25.1%	2.7%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	29.5%	11.0%	11.2%	25.1%	2.7%
2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00	29.5%	11.0%	11.2%	25.1%	2.7%
2026-10-19T01:29:38+00:00	30.3%	11.0%	11.2%	25.1%	2.7%
2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:00	30.3%	11.0%	11.2%	25.1%	2.7%
2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00	30.3%	11.0%	11.2%	25.1%	2.7%
2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00	30.3%	11.0%	11.2%	25.1%	2.7%
2026-10-19T04:31:32+00:00	30.3%	11.0%	11.2%	25.1%	2.7%
2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00	30.3%	11.0%	9.1%	25.1%	2.7%
2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:00	30.3%	11.0%	9.1%	25.1%	2.7%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	30.3%	11.0%	9.1%	25.1%	2.7%
2026-10-19T07:33:48+00:00	22.3%	11.0%	9.1%	9.8%	6.5%
2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:00	22.3%	11.0%	9.1%	9.8%	6.5%
2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00	22.3%	11.0%	9.1%	9.8%	6.5%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	22.3%	11.0%	9.1%	9.8%	6.5%
2026-10-19T10:35:26+00:00	22.3%	11.0%	9.1%	9.8%	6.5%
2026-10-19T11:21:19+00:00	22.3%	11.2%	5.3%	9.8%	6.5%
2026-10-19T12:06:40+00:00	22.3%	11.2%	5.3%	9.8%	6.5%
2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00	22.3%	11.2%	5.3%	9.8%	6.5%
2026-10-19T13:37:04+00:00	23.0%	11.2%	5.3%	9.8%	6.5%
2026-10-19T14:28:06+00:00	22.9%	11.2%	5.3%	9.8%	6.5%
2026-10-19T15:13:55+00:00	22.9%	11.7%	5.3%	9.8%	6.5%
2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00	22.9%	11.7%	5.3%	9.8%	6.5%
2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00	22.9%	11.7%	5.3%	9.8%	6.5%
2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00	22.9%	11.7%	6.5%	9.8%	6.5%
2026-10-19T18:14:42+00:00	22.9%	11.7%	6.5%	9.8%	6.5%
2026-10-19T19:00:20+00:00	22.9%	11.7%	6.5%	9.8%	6.5%
2026-10-19T19:45:33+00:00	22.9%	11.7%	6.5%	6.2%	2.6%
2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00	22.9%	11.7%	6.5%	6.2%	2.6%
2026-10-19T21:15:56+00:00	22.9%	11.7%	6.5%	6.2%	2.6%
2026-10-19T22:01:05+00:00	22.9%	11.7%	6.5%	6.2%	2.6%
2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00	22.9%	11.7%	6.5%	6.2%	2.6%
2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00	22.9%	11.7%	6.5%	6.2%	2.6%
2026-10-20T00:17:10+00:00	22.9%	11.7%	6.5%	6.2%	2.6%
2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00	22.9%	11.7%	6.5%	6.2%	2.6%
2026-10-20T01:47:51+00:00	22.9%	11.7%	6.5%	6.2%	2.6%
2026-10-20T02:33:00+00:00	22.9%	11.7%	6.5%	6.2%	2.6%
2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:00	22.9%	11.7%	6.5%	6.2%	2.6%
2026-10-20T04:05:42+00:00	22.9%	11.7%	6.5%	6.2%	2.6%
2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00	22.9%	11.7%	6.5%	6.2%	2.6%
2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:00	22.9%	11.7%	6.9%	6.2%	2.6%
2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00	22.9%	11.7%	6.9%	6.2%	2.6%
2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00	22.9%	11.7%	6.9%	6.2%	2.6%
2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:00	20.1%	11.7%	6.9%	6.2%	5.1%
2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00	20.1%	11.7%	6.9%	6.2%	5.1%
2026-10-20T09:22:37+00:00	20.1%	11.7%	6.9%	6.2%	5.1%
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00	20.1%	11.7%	6.9%	6.2%	5.1%
2026-10-20T10:54:18+00:00	20.1%	7.5%	4.6%	1.9%	5.1%
2026-10-20T11:39:48+00:00	20.1%	7.5%	4.6%	1.9%	5.1%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00	20.1%	7.5%	4.6%	1.9%	5.1%
2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00	20.1%	7.5%	4.6%	1.9%	5.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	20%	65.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	8%	68.0°F	3.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	5%	68.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	5%	68.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	5%	67.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	4%	68.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	2%	70.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 62°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261021-TMAX-LE62
Opened Oct 17 · 07:45 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 62°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗