— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
68¢
nbm
54¢
icon
45¢
aifs
39¢
wn2
37¢
hres
28¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
58–59°F1¢
60–61°F4¢
62–63°F12¢
64–65°F22¢
66–67°F27¢
68–69°F20¢
70–71°F10¢
72–73°F3¢
74–75°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 14,462 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.69 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KSFO-20261022-TMAX-GE67 · opened 2026-10-15T07:50:33+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape