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KSFO / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≥ 67°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST43%Oct 15 · 10:07 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
68%
ICON
45%
AIFS
39%
WN2
37%
HRES
28%
Consensus
43%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 47.8¢Risks 47.80u
VS
HRESNO 52.2¢Risks 52.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +52.20u · HRES −52.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 38.8% · 2026-10-15T07:50:33+00:00AIFS Single: 38.8% · 2026-10-15T08:35:53+00:00AIFS Single: 38.8% · 2026-10-15T09:21:48+00:00AIFS Single: 38.8% · 2026-10-15T10:07:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.6% · 2026-10-15T07:50:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.6% · 2026-10-15T08:35:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.6% · 2026-10-15T09:21:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.6% · 2026-10-15T10:07:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 36.9% · 2026-10-15T07:50:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 36.9% · 2026-10-15T08:35:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 36.9% · 2026-10-15T09:21:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 36.9% · 2026-10-15T10:07:43+00:00IFS HRES: 28.0% · 2026-10-15T07:50:33+00:00IFS HRES: 28.0% · 2026-10-15T08:35:53+00:00IFS HRES: 28.0% · 2026-10-15T09:21:48+00:00IFS HRES: 28.0% · 2026-10-15T10:07:43+00:00ICON: 44.8% · 2026-10-15T07:50:33+00:00ICON: 44.8% · 2026-10-15T08:35:53+00:00ICON: 44.8% · 2026-10-15T09:21:48+00:00ICON: 44.8% · 2026-10-15T10:07:43+00:0010-15 07:5010-15 09:2110-15 10:07
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-15T10:07:43+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-15T07:50:33+00:0038.8%67.6%36.9%28.0%44.8%
2026-10-15T08:35:53+00:0038.8%67.6%36.9%28.0%44.8%
2026-10-15T09:21:48+00:0038.8%67.6%36.9%28.0%44.8%
2026-10-15T10:07:43+00:0038.8%67.6%36.9%28.0%44.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble68%69.7°F7.0°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
National Blend54%67.0°F5.5°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
ICON45%65.2°F9.9°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
AIFS Single39%64.9°F5.6°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 237%64.7°F5.4°F2026-10-14 18:00Pending
IFS HRES28%62.8°F6.3°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 67°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261022-TMAX-GE67
Opened Oct 15 · 07:50 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco high ≥ 67°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗