— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
icon
62¢
eps
55¢
nbm
55¢
hres
46¢
aifs
32¢
wn2
30¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
58–59°F1¢
60–61°F4¢
62–63°F11¢
64–65°F21¢
66–67°F26¢
68–69°F21¢
70–71°F11¢
72–73°F4¢
74–75°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 14,512 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.688 vs climatology 8.841.
Receipts
prop id WP-KSFO-20261022-TMAX-GE68 · opened 2026-10-15T10:53:48+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape