KSFO / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST45%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

62%

55%

46%

32%

30%

Consensus

45%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 46.2¢Risks 46.15u

WN2NO 53.8¢Risks 53.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +53.85u · WN2 −53.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T03:38:45+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T10:53:48+00:00	32.2%	62.3%	32.3%	22.9%	40.9%
2026-10-15T11:39:41+00:00	32.2%	62.3%	32.3%	22.9%	40.9%
2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:00	32.2%	54.2%	32.3%	22.9%	40.9%
2026-10-15T13:10:39+00:00	32.2%	54.2%	32.3%	22.9%	40.9%
2026-10-15T13:55:55+00:00	32.4%	54.2%	32.5%	23.2%	40.8%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00	32.4%	54.2%	32.5%	23.2%	40.8%
2026-10-15T15:34:42+00:00	32.4%	54.9%	32.5%	23.2%	40.8%
2026-10-15T16:20:17+00:00	32.4%	54.9%	32.5%	23.2%	40.8%
2026-10-15T17:05:26+00:00	32.4%	54.9%	34.7%	23.2%	40.8%
2026-10-15T17:50:49+00:00	32.4%	54.9%	34.7%	23.2%	40.8%
2026-10-15T18:36:03+00:00	32.4%	54.9%	34.7%	23.2%	40.8%
2026-10-15T19:21:11+00:00	32.4%	54.9%	34.7%	23.2%	40.8%
2026-10-15T20:06:22+00:00	25.8%	54.9%	34.7%	45.7%	61.9%
2026-10-15T20:51:37+00:00	25.8%	54.9%	34.7%	45.7%	61.9%
2026-10-15T21:36:46+00:00	25.8%	54.9%	34.7%	45.7%	61.9%
2026-10-15T22:21:55+00:00	25.8%	54.9%	34.7%	45.7%	61.9%
2026-10-15T23:07:06+00:00	25.8%	54.9%	30.4%	45.7%	61.9%
2026-10-15T23:52:18+00:00	25.8%	54.9%	30.4%	45.7%	61.9%
2026-10-16T00:37:28+00:00	25.8%	54.9%	30.4%	45.7%	61.9%
2026-10-16T01:22:51+00:00	32.4%	54.9%	30.4%	45.7%	61.9%
2026-10-16T02:08:22+00:00	32.4%	54.9%	30.4%	45.7%	61.9%
2026-10-16T02:53:36+00:00	32.4%	54.9%	30.4%	45.7%	61.9%
2026-10-16T03:38:45+00:00	32.4%	54.9%	30.4%	45.7%	61.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	62%	70.5°F	9.9°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	55%	68.2°F	5.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	68.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	46%	66.8°F	6.4°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	32%	64.9°F	5.7°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	30%	64.9°F	5.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261022-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 15 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco high ≥ 68°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗