— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
nbm
94¢
hres
89¢
icon
86¢
eps
82¢
wn2
74¢
aifs
72¢
ndfd
55¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
62–63°F3¢
64–65°F10¢
66–67°F21¢
68–69°F28¢
70–71°F22¢
72–73°F11¢
74–75°F3¢
76–77°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,413 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.902 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KSFO-20261023-TMAX-GE66 · opened 2026-10-17T04:42:36+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape