KSFO / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST87%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

86%

82%

74%

72%

Consensus

87%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 80.6¢Risks 40.30u

AIFSNO 19.4¢Risks 9.70u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +9.70u · AIFS −9.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T04:42:36+00:00	54.2%	75.2%	52.3%	76.7%	49.6%
2026-10-17T05:28:29+00:00	54.2%	75.2%	48.4%	76.7%	49.6%
2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00	54.2%	75.2%	48.4%	76.7%	49.6%
2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00	54.2%	75.2%	48.4%	76.7%	49.6%
2026-10-17T07:45:08+00:00	50.0%	75.2%	48.4%	49.4%	78.0%
2026-10-17T08:30:59+00:00	50.0%	75.2%	48.4%	49.4%	78.0%
2026-10-17T09:16:45+00:00	50.0%	75.2%	48.4%	49.4%	78.0%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00	50.0%	75.2%	48.4%	49.4%	78.0%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	50.0%	75.2%	48.4%	49.4%	78.0%
2026-10-17T11:32:17+00:00	50.0%	72.8%	49.1%	49.4%	78.0%
2026-10-17T12:17:30+00:00	50.0%	72.8%	49.1%	49.4%	78.0%
2026-10-17T13:02:38+00:00	50.0%	72.8%	49.1%	49.4%	78.0%
2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:00	52.2%	72.8%	49.1%	49.4%	78.0%
2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:00	52.2%	72.7%	49.1%	49.4%	77.9%
2026-10-17T15:25:20+00:00	52.2%	73.1%	49.1%	49.4%	77.9%
2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00	52.2%	73.1%	49.1%	49.4%	77.9%
2026-10-17T16:55:43+00:00	52.2%	73.1%	50.9%	49.4%	77.9%
2026-10-17T17:40:52+00:00	52.2%	73.1%	50.9%	49.4%	77.9%
2026-10-17T18:25:59+00:00	52.2%	73.1%	50.9%	49.4%	77.9%
2026-10-17T19:11:06+00:00	52.2%	73.1%	50.9%	49.4%	77.9%
2026-10-17T19:56:17+00:00	54.4%	73.1%	50.9%	53.0%	77.9%
2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00	54.4%	73.1%	50.9%	53.0%	77.9%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	54.4%	73.1%	50.9%	53.0%	77.9%
2026-10-17T22:11:56+00:00	54.4%	73.1%	50.9%	53.0%	77.9%
2026-10-17T22:57:06+00:00	54.4%	73.1%	51.7%	53.0%	77.9%
2026-10-17T23:42:15+00:00	54.4%	73.1%	51.7%	53.0%	77.9%
2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00	54.4%	73.1%	51.7%	53.0%	77.9%
2026-10-18T01:12:57+00:00	54.4%	73.1%	51.7%	53.0%	77.9%
2026-10-18T01:58:16+00:00	58.8%	73.1%	51.7%	53.0%	77.9%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00	58.8%	73.1%	51.7%	53.0%	77.9%
2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00	58.8%	73.1%	51.7%	53.0%	77.9%
2026-10-18T14:56:11+00:00	65.7%	71.9%	59.6%	69.8%	92.5%
2026-10-18T15:41:40+00:00	65.7%	71.9%	59.6%	69.8%	92.5%
2026-10-18T16:27:01+00:00	65.7%	71.9%	59.6%	69.8%	92.5%
2026-10-18T17:12:11+00:00	65.7%	71.9%	58.7%	69.8%	92.5%
2026-10-18T17:57:35+00:00	65.7%	71.9%	58.7%	69.8%	92.5%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	65.7%	71.9%	58.7%	69.8%	92.5%
2026-10-18T19:28:00+00:00	67.2%	71.9%	58.7%	54.1%	95.8%
2026-10-18T20:13:10+00:00	67.2%	71.9%	58.7%	54.1%	95.8%
2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00	67.2%	71.9%	58.7%	54.1%	95.8%
2026-10-18T21:43:28+00:00	67.2%	71.9%	58.7%	54.1%	95.8%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	67.2%	71.9%	58.7%	54.1%	95.8%
2026-10-18T23:13:45+00:00	67.2%	71.9%	65.1%	54.1%	95.8%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	67.2%	71.9%	65.1%	54.1%	95.8%
2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00	67.2%	71.9%	65.1%	54.1%	95.8%
2026-10-19T01:29:38+00:00	69.3%	71.9%	65.1%	54.1%	95.8%
2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:00	69.3%	71.9%	65.1%	54.1%	95.8%
2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00	69.3%	71.9%	65.1%	54.1%	95.8%
2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00	69.3%	71.9%	65.1%	54.1%	95.8%
2026-10-19T04:31:32+00:00	69.3%	71.9%	65.1%	54.1%	95.8%
2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00	69.3%	71.9%	63.3%	54.1%	95.8%
2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:00	69.3%	71.9%	63.3%	54.1%	95.8%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	69.3%	71.9%	63.3%	54.1%	95.8%
2026-10-19T07:33:48+00:00	65.3%	71.9%	63.3%	67.7%	93.5%
2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:00	65.3%	71.9%	63.3%	67.7%	93.5%
2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00	65.3%	71.9%	63.3%	67.7%	93.5%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	65.3%	71.9%	63.3%	67.7%	93.5%
2026-10-19T10:35:26+00:00	65.3%	71.9%	63.3%	67.7%	93.5%
2026-10-19T11:21:19+00:00	65.3%	74.4%	60.6%	67.7%	93.5%
2026-10-19T12:06:40+00:00	65.3%	74.4%	60.6%	67.7%	93.5%
2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00	65.3%	74.4%	60.6%	67.7%	93.5%
2026-10-19T13:37:04+00:00	69.9%	74.4%	60.6%	67.7%	93.5%
2026-10-19T14:28:06+00:00	70.0%	74.4%	60.6%	67.7%	93.6%
2026-10-19T15:13:55+00:00	70.0%	73.9%	60.6%	67.7%	93.6%
2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00	70.0%	73.9%	60.6%	67.7%	93.6%
2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00	70.0%	73.9%	60.6%	67.7%	93.6%
2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00	70.0%	73.9%	64.7%	67.7%	93.6%
2026-10-19T18:14:42+00:00	70.0%	73.9%	64.7%	67.7%	93.6%
2026-10-19T19:00:20+00:00	70.0%	73.9%	64.7%	67.7%	93.6%
2026-10-19T19:45:33+00:00	66.1%	73.9%	64.7%	67.7%	92.5%
2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00	66.1%	73.9%	64.7%	67.7%	92.5%
2026-10-19T21:15:56+00:00	66.1%	73.9%	64.7%	67.7%	92.5%
2026-10-19T22:01:05+00:00	66.1%	73.9%	64.7%	67.7%	92.5%
2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00	66.1%	73.9%	64.7%	67.7%	92.5%
2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00	66.1%	73.9%	65.7%	67.7%	92.5%
2026-10-20T00:17:10+00:00	66.1%	73.9%	65.7%	67.7%	92.5%
2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00	66.1%	73.9%	65.7%	67.7%	92.5%
2026-10-20T01:47:51+00:00	74.4%	73.9%	65.7%	67.7%	92.5%
2026-10-20T02:33:00+00:00	74.4%	73.9%	65.7%	67.7%	92.5%
2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:00	74.4%	73.9%	65.7%	67.7%	92.5%
2026-10-20T04:05:42+00:00	74.4%	73.9%	65.7%	67.7%	92.5%
2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00	74.4%	73.9%	65.7%	67.7%	92.5%
2026-10-20T05:36:36+00:00	74.4%	73.9%	70.5%	67.7%	92.5%
2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00	74.4%	73.9%	70.5%	67.7%	92.5%
2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00	74.4%	73.9%	70.5%	67.7%	92.5%
2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:00	72.1%	73.9%	70.5%	67.7%	85.9%
2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00	72.1%	73.9%	70.5%	67.7%	85.9%
2026-10-20T09:22:37+00:00	72.1%	73.9%	70.5%	67.7%	85.9%
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00	72.1%	73.9%	70.5%	67.7%	85.9%
2026-10-20T10:54:18+00:00	72.1%	82.2%	74.4%	89.1%	85.9%
2026-10-20T11:39:48+00:00	72.1%	82.2%	74.4%	89.1%	85.9%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00	72.1%	82.2%	74.4%	89.1%	85.9%
2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00	72.1%	82.2%	74.4%	89.1%	85.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	94%	69.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	89%	71.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	86%	69.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	82%	69.0°F	3.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	74%	67.7°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	72%	68.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	66.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261023-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 17 · 04:42 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco high ≥ 66°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗