— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
hres
91¢
icon
76¢
aifs
65¢
wn2
64¢
nbm
61¢
eps
57¢
ndfd
53¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
60–61°F1¢
62–63°F2¢
64–65°F5¢
66–67°F9¢
68–69°F15¢
70–71°F18¢
72–73°F18¢
74–75°F15¢
76–77°F9¢
78–79°F5¢
80–81°F2¢
82–83°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 5, scored on 14,315 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.48 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KSFO-20261025-TMAX-GE68 · opened 2026-10-18T08:01:53+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape