KSFO / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST70%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

76%

65%

64%

57%

Consensus

70%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 74.0¢Risks 74.00u

EPSNO 26.0¢Risks 26.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +26.00u · EPS −26.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T08:01:53+00:00	29.5%	48.3%	36.4%	15.7%	34.8%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00	29.5%	48.3%	36.4%	15.7%	34.8%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00	29.5%	48.3%	36.4%	15.7%	34.8%
2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00	29.5%	48.3%	36.4%	15.7%	34.8%
2026-10-18T11:03:02+00:00	29.5%	52.2%	43.8%	15.7%	34.8%
2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00	29.5%	52.2%	43.8%	15.7%	34.8%
2026-10-18T12:33:57+00:00	29.5%	52.2%	43.8%	15.7%	34.8%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	29.5%	52.2%	43.8%	15.7%	34.8%
2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:00	60.3%	52.2%	43.8%	15.7%	34.5%
2026-10-18T14:56:12+00:00	60.3%	52.2%	43.8%	15.7%	34.5%
2026-10-18T15:41:40+00:00	60.3%	52.2%	43.8%	15.7%	34.5%
2026-10-18T16:27:01+00:00	60.3%	52.2%	43.8%	15.7%	34.5%
2026-10-18T17:12:11+00:00	60.3%	52.2%	49.2%	15.7%	34.5%
2026-10-18T17:57:35+00:00	60.3%	52.2%	49.2%	15.7%	34.5%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	60.3%	52.2%	49.2%	15.7%	34.5%
2026-10-18T19:28:01+00:00	55.5%	52.2%	49.2%	65.1%	48.0%
2026-10-18T20:13:10+00:00	55.5%	52.2%	49.2%	65.1%	48.0%
2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00	55.5%	52.2%	49.2%	65.1%	48.0%
2026-10-18T21:43:28+00:00	55.5%	52.2%	49.2%	65.1%	48.0%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	55.5%	52.2%	49.2%	65.1%	48.0%
2026-10-18T23:13:45+00:00	55.5%	52.2%	51.6%	65.1%	48.0%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	55.5%	52.2%	51.6%	65.1%	48.0%
2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00	55.5%	52.2%	51.6%	65.1%	48.0%
2026-10-19T01:29:38+00:00	64.9%	52.2%	51.6%	65.1%	48.0%
2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:00	64.9%	52.2%	51.6%	65.1%	48.0%
2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00	64.9%	52.2%	51.6%	65.1%	48.0%
2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00	64.9%	52.2%	51.6%	65.1%	48.0%
2026-10-19T15:13:55+00:00	72.9%	57.1%	48.3%	45.8%	93.5%
2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00	72.9%	57.1%	48.3%	45.8%	93.5%
2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00	72.9%	57.1%	48.3%	45.8%	93.5%
2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00	72.9%	57.1%	63.4%	45.8%	93.5%
2026-10-19T18:14:42+00:00	72.9%	57.1%	63.4%	45.8%	93.5%
2026-10-19T19:00:20+00:00	72.9%	57.1%	63.4%	45.8%	93.5%
2026-10-19T19:45:33+00:00	60.9%	57.1%	63.4%	90.9%	76.3%
2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00	60.9%	57.1%	63.4%	90.9%	76.3%
2026-10-19T21:15:56+00:00	60.9%	57.1%	63.4%	90.9%	76.3%
2026-10-19T22:01:05+00:00	60.9%	57.1%	63.4%	90.9%	76.3%
2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00	60.9%	57.1%	63.4%	90.9%	76.3%
2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00	60.9%	57.1%	64.2%	90.9%	76.3%
2026-10-20T00:17:10+00:00	60.9%	57.1%	64.2%	90.9%	76.3%
2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00	60.9%	57.1%	64.2%	90.9%	76.3%
2026-10-20T01:47:51+00:00	65.1%	57.1%	64.2%	90.9%	76.3%
2026-10-20T02:33:00+00:00	65.1%	57.1%	64.2%	90.9%	76.3%
2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:00	65.1%	57.1%	64.2%	90.9%	76.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	91%	76.3°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	76%	72.6°F	7.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	65%	69.6°F	5.4°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	64%	69.2°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	61%	69.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	57%	68.3°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	68.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261025-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco high ≥ 68°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗