— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
hres
56¢
icon
49¢
nbm
30¢
aifs
21¢
ndfd
8¢
eps
6¢
wn2
6¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
62–63°F2¢
64–65°F4¢
66–67°F8¢
68–69°F14¢
70–71°F18¢
72–73°F19¢
74–75°F16¢
76–77°F10¢
78–79°F6¢
80–81°F2¢
82–83°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 5, scored on 14,365 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.476 vs climatology 8.841.
Receipts
prop id WP-KSFO-20261025-TMAX-GE77 · opened 2026-10-18T11:03:02+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape