KSFO / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST14%Oct 20 · 17:48 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

56%

49%

21%

Consensus

14%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 30.7¢Risks 30.70u

WN2NO 69.3¢Risks 69.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +69.30u · WN2 −69.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T17:48:40+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T11:03:02+00:00	1.8%	5.7%	2.8%	0.8%	9.7%
2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00	1.8%	5.7%	2.8%	0.8%	9.7%
2026-10-18T12:33:57+00:00	1.8%	5.7%	2.8%	0.8%	9.7%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	1.8%	5.7%	2.8%	0.8%	9.7%
2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:00	9.6%	5.7%	2.8%	0.8%	9.7%
2026-10-18T14:56:12+00:00	9.6%	5.7%	2.8%	0.8%	9.7%
2026-10-18T15:41:40+00:00	9.6%	5.2%	2.8%	0.8%	9.7%
2026-10-18T16:27:01+00:00	9.6%	5.2%	2.8%	0.8%	9.7%
2026-10-18T17:12:11+00:00	9.6%	5.2%	3.7%	0.8%	9.7%
2026-10-18T17:57:35+00:00	9.6%	5.2%	3.7%	0.8%	9.7%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	9.6%	5.2%	3.7%	0.8%	9.7%
2026-10-18T19:28:01+00:00	7.7%	5.2%	3.7%	15.7%	17.1%
2026-10-18T20:13:10+00:00	7.7%	5.2%	3.7%	15.7%	17.1%
2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00	7.7%	5.2%	3.7%	15.7%	17.1%
2026-10-18T21:43:28+00:00	7.7%	5.2%	3.7%	15.7%	17.1%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	7.7%	5.2%	3.7%	15.7%	17.1%
2026-10-18T23:13:45+00:00	7.7%	5.2%	4.3%	15.7%	17.1%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	7.7%	5.2%	4.3%	15.7%	17.1%
2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00	7.7%	5.2%	4.3%	15.7%	17.1%
2026-10-19T01:29:38+00:00	11.8%	5.2%	4.3%	15.7%	17.1%
2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:00	11.8%	5.2%	4.3%	15.7%	17.1%
2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00	11.8%	5.2%	4.3%	15.7%	17.1%
2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00	11.8%	5.2%	4.3%	15.7%	17.1%
2026-10-19T04:31:34+00:00	11.8%	5.2%	4.3%	15.7%	17.1%
2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00	11.8%	5.2%	5.0%	15.7%	17.1%
2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:00	11.8%	5.2%	5.0%	15.7%	17.1%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	11.8%	5.2%	5.0%	15.7%	17.1%
2026-10-19T07:33:50+00:00	4.0%	5.2%	5.0%	7.1%	60.5%
2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:00	4.0%	5.2%	5.0%	7.1%	60.5%
2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00	4.0%	5.2%	5.0%	7.1%	60.5%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	4.0%	5.2%	5.0%	7.1%	60.5%
2026-10-19T10:35:26+00:00	4.0%	5.2%	5.0%	7.1%	60.5%
2026-10-19T11:21:19+00:00	4.0%	3.2%	2.4%	7.1%	60.5%
2026-10-19T12:06:40+00:00	4.0%	3.2%	2.4%	7.1%	60.5%
2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00	4.0%	3.2%	2.4%	7.1%	60.5%
2026-10-19T13:37:04+00:00	14.6%	3.2%	2.4%	7.1%	60.5%
2026-10-19T14:28:06+00:00	14.6%	3.2%	2.4%	7.1%	60.0%
2026-10-19T15:13:55+00:00	14.6%	3.4%	2.4%	7.1%	60.0%
2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00	14.6%	3.4%	2.4%	7.1%	60.0%
2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00	14.6%	3.4%	2.4%	7.1%	60.0%
2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00	14.6%	3.4%	5.7%	7.1%	60.0%
2026-10-19T18:14:42+00:00	14.6%	3.4%	5.7%	7.1%	60.0%
2026-10-19T19:00:20+00:00	14.6%	3.4%	5.7%	7.1%	60.0%
2026-10-19T19:45:33+00:00	8.2%	3.4%	5.7%	48.8%	29.2%
2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00	8.2%	3.4%	5.7%	48.8%	29.2%
2026-10-19T21:15:56+00:00	8.2%	3.4%	5.7%	48.8%	29.2%
2026-10-19T22:01:05+00:00	8.2%	3.4%	5.7%	48.8%	29.2%
2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00	8.2%	3.4%	5.7%	48.8%	29.2%
2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00	8.2%	3.4%	5.9%	48.8%	29.2%
2026-10-20T00:17:10+00:00	8.2%	3.4%	5.9%	48.8%	29.2%
2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00	8.2%	3.4%	5.9%	48.8%	29.2%
2026-10-20T01:47:51+00:00	10.1%	3.4%	5.9%	48.8%	29.2%
2026-10-20T02:33:00+00:00	10.1%	3.4%	5.9%	48.8%	29.2%
2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:00	10.1%	3.4%	5.9%	48.8%	29.2%
2026-10-20T04:05:43+00:00	10.1%	3.4%	5.9%	48.8%	29.2%
2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00	10.1%	3.4%	5.9%	48.8%	29.2%
2026-10-20T05:36:36+00:00	10.1%	3.4%	7.9%	48.8%	29.2%
2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00	10.1%	3.4%	7.9%	48.8%	29.2%
2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00	10.1%	3.4%	7.9%	48.8%	29.2%
2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:00	12.8%	3.4%	7.9%	48.8%	49.3%
2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00	12.8%	3.4%	7.9%	48.8%	49.3%
2026-10-20T09:22:37+00:00	12.8%	3.4%	7.9%	48.8%	49.3%
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00	12.8%	3.4%	7.9%	48.8%	49.3%
2026-10-20T10:54:18+00:00	12.8%	6.9%	4.0%	55.5%	49.3%
2026-10-20T11:39:48+00:00	12.8%	6.9%	4.0%	55.5%	49.3%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00	12.8%	6.9%	4.0%	55.5%	49.3%
2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00	12.8%	6.9%	4.0%	55.5%	49.3%
2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00	12.8%	6.9%	4.0%	55.5%	49.3%
2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00	12.8%	6.9%	4.0%	55.5%	49.3%
2026-10-20T15:32:45+00:00	12.8%	6.5%	4.0%	55.5%	49.3%
2026-10-20T16:18:02+00:00	12.8%	6.5%	4.0%	55.5%	49.3%
2026-10-20T17:03:31+00:00	20.9%	6.5%	5.9%	55.5%	49.3%
2026-10-20T17:48:40+00:00	20.9%	6.5%	5.9%	55.5%	49.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	56%	77.3°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	49%	76.4°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	30%	71.0°F	10.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	21%	72.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	8%	69.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	6%	70.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	6%	70.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261025-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 18 · 11:03 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco runs hot-for-here: 77°F+ · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗