— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
hres
98¢
eps
77¢
icon
65¢
nbm
65¢
wn2
55¢
ndfd
53¢
aifs
42¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
58–59°F1¢
60–61°F2¢
62–63°F5¢
64–65°F8¢
66–67°F12¢
68–69°F15¢
70–71°F16¢
72–73°F14¢
74–75°F11¢
76–77°F7¢
78–79°F4¢
80–81°F2¢
82–83°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 6, scored on 14,266 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.855 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KSFO-20261026-TMAX-GE68 · opened 2026-10-20T04:05:43+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape