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KSFO / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST70%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
98%
EPS
77%
ICON
65%
WN2
55%
AIFS
42%
Consensus
70%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 69.7¢Risks 69.70u
VS
AIFSNO 30.3¢Risks 30.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +30.30u · AIFS −30.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 45.8% · 2026-10-20T04:05:43+00:00AIFS Single: 45.8% · 2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00AIFS Single: 45.8% · 2026-10-20T05:36:36+00:00AIFS Single: 45.8% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00AIFS Single: 45.8% · 2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00AIFS Single: 41.9% · 2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:00AIFS Single: 41.9% · 2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00AIFS Single: 41.9% · 2026-10-20T09:22:37+00:00AIFS Single: 41.9% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00AIFS Single: 41.9% · 2026-10-20T10:54:18+00:00AIFS Single: 41.9% · 2026-10-20T11:39:48+00:00AIFS Single: 41.9% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00AIFS Single: 41.9% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.5% · 2026-10-20T04:05:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.5% · 2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.5% · 2026-10-20T05:36:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.5% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.5% · 2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.5% · 2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.5% · 2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.5% · 2026-10-20T09:22:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.5% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.2% · 2026-10-20T10:54:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.2% · 2026-10-20T11:39:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.2% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.2% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.1% · 2026-10-20T04:05:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.1% · 2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.3% · 2026-10-20T05:36:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.3% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.3% · 2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.3% · 2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.3% · 2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.3% · 2026-10-20T09:22:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.3% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 55.1% · 2026-10-20T10:54:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 55.1% · 2026-10-20T11:39:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 55.1% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 55.1% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00IFS HRES: 97.7% · 2026-10-20T04:05:43+00:00IFS HRES: 97.7% · 2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00IFS HRES: 97.7% · 2026-10-20T05:36:36+00:00IFS HRES: 97.7% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00IFS HRES: 97.7% · 2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00IFS HRES: 97.7% · 2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:00IFS HRES: 97.7% · 2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00IFS HRES: 97.7% · 2026-10-20T09:22:37+00:00IFS HRES: 97.7% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00IFS HRES: 97.5% · 2026-10-20T10:54:18+00:00IFS HRES: 97.5% · 2026-10-20T11:39:48+00:00IFS HRES: 97.5% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00IFS HRES: 97.5% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00ICON: 68.4% · 2026-10-20T04:05:43+00:00ICON: 68.4% · 2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00ICON: 68.4% · 2026-10-20T05:36:36+00:00ICON: 68.4% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00ICON: 68.4% · 2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00ICON: 65.3% · 2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:00ICON: 65.3% · 2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00ICON: 65.3% · 2026-10-20T09:22:37+00:00ICON: 65.3% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00ICON: 65.3% · 2026-10-20T10:54:18+00:00ICON: 65.3% · 2026-10-20T11:39:48+00:00ICON: 65.3% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00ICON: 65.3% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:0010-20 04:0510-20 08:3710-20 13:10
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T04:05:43+00:0045.8%54.5%60.1%97.7%68.4%
2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:0045.8%54.5%60.1%97.7%68.4%
2026-10-20T05:36:36+00:0045.8%54.5%62.3%97.7%68.4%
2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:0045.8%54.5%62.3%97.7%68.4%
2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:0045.8%54.5%62.3%97.7%68.4%
2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:0041.9%54.5%62.3%97.7%65.3%
2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:0041.9%54.5%62.3%97.7%65.3%
2026-10-20T09:22:37+00:0041.9%54.5%62.3%97.7%65.3%
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:0041.9%54.5%62.3%97.7%65.3%
2026-10-20T10:54:18+00:0041.9%77.2%55.1%97.5%65.3%
2026-10-20T11:39:48+00:0041.9%77.2%55.1%97.5%65.3%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:0041.9%77.2%55.1%97.5%65.3%
2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:0041.9%77.2%55.1%97.5%65.3%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES98%80.4°F6.6°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble77%71.2°F5.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON65%70.3°F7.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend65%70.0°F6.7°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 255%68.1°F4.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
NWS forecast53%68.0°F5.9°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
AIFS Single42%66.4°F5.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261026-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 20 · 04:05 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco high ≥ 68°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗